HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0115

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	OPEC releases its monthly oil market report	★★★
05:30	U.S. API crude oil inventory as of the week ending January 10	★★★
15:00	UK December CPI month-on-month	★★★
	UK December Retail Price Index month-on-month	★★★
15:45	France December CPI month-on-month final value	★★★
17:00	IEA releases its monthly oil market report	★★★
18:00	Eurozone November industrial production month-on-month	★★★
21:30	Canada November wholesale sales month-on-month	★★★
	U.S. December non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year	★★★★★
	U.S. December seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month	★★★★
	U.S. December seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month	★★★
	U.S. December non-seasonally adjusted core CPI year-on-year	★★★
23:30	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory as of the week ending January 10	★★★★
	U.S. EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory as of the week ending January 10	★★★
	U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory as of the week ending January 10	★★★
Following day 03:00	Federal Reserve releases Economic Conditions Beige Book	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support zone	Resistance zone
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating with a strong bias	107.5-108	110-111
Gold	Fluctuating with a strong bias	2620-2630	2720-2730
Crude oil	Fluctuating with a strong bias	68-70	78-80
Euro	Fluctuating with a weak bias	0.9900-1.0000	1.0350-1.0400

*Pre-market insights are timely and limited, based on forecasts for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental analysis:

In the December Federal Reserve meeting, interest rates were cut by another 25 basis points. The labor market remains robust, with overall economic performance strong. The inflation target has been postponed until 2027, indicating a cautious approach to interest rate policy, with the dot plot showing two rate cuts expected next year. December non-farm payroll data showed a significant increase in new jobs, exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate slightly falling to 4.1%, indicating a strong labor market. The November core PCE price index remained flat compared to the previous value; the December ISM manufacturing PMI saw a slight increase. Attention is on Wednesday’s CPI data.

Technical analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index saw a slight pullback yesterday, indicating resistance at the upper pressure zone. Although it experienced minor fluctuations, it has not changed the upward structure. After the pullback ends, it may test the upper resistance level again. In the short term, it may remain volatile. In summary, the larger trend shows a strong bias with daily fluctuations upward, and no signals of weakening have emerged. The significant upper pressure zone is around 110-111, while the smaller support zone is around 107.5-108.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a strong bias, minor cycle pullback; follow the strategy of buying on the dip and reducing holdings on the rise.

*Pre-market insights are timely and limited, based on forecasts for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are worsening, while the situation in Eastern Europe and the Korean Peninsula remains unstable. In December, the European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time, making progress against inflation, although economic recovery is slower than expected. The Federal Reserve’s December rate decision to lower rates by 25 basis points was in line with expectations, showing a solid labor market and strong overall economic performance, leading to expectations of a slowdown in rate cuts. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for December showed strong performance, with a significant increase in employment and a slight decline in the unemployment rate. Attention is focused on the U.S. CPI data on Wednesday.

Technical analysis:

Gold prices showed slight fluctuations during the day, and after a second pullback in a small cycle, there are signs of stabilization, potentially resuming an upward trend. In the short term, the main strategy is to take low positions, reducing holdings to take profits at highs, while also monitoring whether prices can break through resistance levels. From a larger perspective, the upward structure remains intact, currently experiencing high-level fluctuations, with attention on whether prices can reach new highs. The upper resistance zone is around 2720-2730, and the lower support zone is around 2620-2630.

Viewpoint: Fluctuations are slightly strong; short-term attempts to take low positions and reduce holdings for profit at highs.

*Pre-market insights are timely and limited, based on forecasts for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental analysis:

The January EIA monthly report slightly raised the oil price forecast for 2025. The December OPEC monthly report slightly lowered the growth rate of global oil demand for 2025 but maintained the growth forecast for the global economy in 2025; the IEA monthly report slightly raised the growth forecast for global oil demand in 2025. At the beginning of December, the OPEC+ meeting extended voluntary production cuts until March next year and postponed the production increase plan until April next year, with both collective and compensatory production cuts extended until the end of 2026. Attention is on the EIA crude oil inventory and the monthly reports from major organizations like OPEC.

Technical analysis:

U.S. crude oil experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, with prices approaching the upper pressure structure. There are signs of encountering resistance in the small cycle, and caution is warranted for a potential short-term pullback. Reducing holdings for profit on long positions is advisable, while maintaining a low position strategy in the short term. Overall, oil prices have broken upward after fluctuating at low levels, demonstrating signs of stabilization at a larger scale. The important upper resistance area is around 79-80, and the lower support area is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: Fluctuations are slightly strong; the main strategy is to take low positions and reduce holdings for profit at highs.

*Pre-market insights are timely and limited, based on forecasts for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental analysis:

The European Central Bank’s December rate decision reflected a third consecutive interest rate cut of 25 basis points, removing the language of maintaining a “restrictive” rate. Progress against inflation is steady, although economic recovery is slower than anticipated, with plans to halt asset purchases by the end of 2024. The Federal Reserve’s December rate decision to cut by 25 basis points met expectations, with a robust labor market and strong overall economic performance, leading to expectations of a slowdown in rate cuts. U.S. non-farm data for December was strong, with a significant increase in employment and a slight dip in the unemployment rate. Manufacturing PMI values in the Eurozone and major economies showed a slight decline. Attention is turned to U.S. CPI data on Wednesday.

Technical analysis:

The euro price slightly increased yesterday, showing an upward fluctuation in a small cycle. Currently, it is in a secondary rebound trend, not altering the downward structure, with a focus on the upper resistance level and a primary strategy of short positions, reducing holdings for profit at lows. Overall, the daily trend is fluctuating downwards, with a weak performance at a larger scale, and yet to show signs of stabilization. The upper small-level resistance area is around 1.0350-1.0400, while the lower support area is around 0.9900-1.0000.

Viewpoint: Fluctuations are slightly weak; the primary strategy is to take short positions and reduce holdings for profit at lows.

*Pre-market insights are timely and limited, based on forecasts for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.