HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0211

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:30	French fourth quarter ILO unemployment rate	★★★
19:00	US January NFIB Small Business Confidence Index	★★★
20:15	Bank of England Governor Bailey delivers a speech	★★★
21:50	Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks on economic outlook	★★★
23:00	Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attends Senate hearing and presents semi-annual monetary policy testimony	★★★★★
Next day 01:00	EIA releases monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report	★★★

Varieties	Viewpoints	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	High-level volatility	107-107.5	110-111
Gold	Volatility biased upward	2850-2870	2980-3000
Crude Oil	Short-term volatility	69-70	79-80
Euro	Short-term volatility	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

*Pre-market views, timely and limited, are merely predictions for reference and learning purposes. They do not constitute investment advice, and operating risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; transactions must be conducted with caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting decided to keep interest rates unchanged, as the labor market remains strong, economic activity expands steadily, and inflation levels still appear somewhat high. Expectations for monetary policy easing have cooled, and attention will be on new government policies. In January, non-farm data showed that new jobs decreased to 143,000, lower than expected, while the unemployment rate slightly fell to 4.0%. The labor market performance remains solid. The core PCE price index for December remained flat compared to the previous value; January’s ISM Manufacturing PMI value slightly rose. Attention is on Wednesday’s Senate hearing featuring the Federal Reserve Chairman and the January CPI annual rate release.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index saw a slight rise yesterday, with a small cycle moving upwards. The current price is at a relatively high level, showing no signs of weakening, and it may continue to test resistance levels upwards. The short term is likely to maintain a volatile pattern, with attention on whether new highs can be established. Overall, a large-scale strong consolidation is observed, with the short term entering a corrective phase. Key resistance areas are around 110-111, and support areas are around 107-107.5.

Viewpoint: High-level volatility, support levels have not been broken, and there are signs of stabilization in the small cycle.

*Pre-market views, timely and limited, are merely predictions for reference and learning purposes. They do not constitute investment advice, and operating risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; transactions must be conducted with caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Ongoing deterioration of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, and turmoil in Eastern Europe present uncertainties. The ECB’s decision at the end of January saw a fourth consecutive interest rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation basically meeting expectations, yet economic performance remains weak under pressure. In January, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, with good economic activity performance, although inflation levels remain high, leading to a alleviation in easing expectations. The US January non-farm data performed moderately, with new job additions decreasing and falling below expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly fell, which was slightly better than expected. Attention is on the US CPI annual rate on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices surged yesterday, with daily volatility trending upwards and a new high established in the small cycle, currently showing no signs of weakening. For long positions, it’s advised to reduce holdings for profit at highs, and short-term strategies should focus on buying the dips. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure remains intact, with current price levels undergoing high volatility; attention is on whether new highs can be established. Key resistance levels are likely around 2980-3000, with small-scale support levels around 2850-2870.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, mainly focusing on short-term buy strategies, reducing holdings to take profits at highs.

*Pre-market views, timely and limited, are merely predictions for reference and learning purposes. They do not constitute investment advice, and operating risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; transactions must be conducted with caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

January EIA monthly report slightly raised the 2025 crude oil price; OPEC monthly report maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025-2026; IEA monthly report slightly lowered the 2025 global oil demand growth forecast. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreement, and the committee agreed to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, in line with the previous plan. Pay attention to the monthly reports from the three major organizations including OPEC, and observe EIA crude oil inventories.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil performed well yesterday, with a large bullish candlestick on the daily chart, and prices rebounded from an important support zone. A minor cycle shows signs of rebound, and a second potential retest of the structure may occur shortly, at which point watch for stabilization signals to explore short-term buy opportunities. Overall, crude oil prices are fluctuating with a slight upward trend, with signs of stabilization at a high level, and a short-term correction is underway. The upper resistance area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, focus on support areas, and watch for stabilization signals during a second retest.

*Pre-market views, timely and limited, are merely predictions for reference and learning purposes. They do not constitute investment advice, and operating risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; transactions must be conducted with caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the fourth consecutive time, with inflation basically meeting expectations and expected to return to mid-term targets this year. The economy still faces challenges and may remain weak in the short term, but income and policy effects support a rebound in demand. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, with overall economic performance strong and easing expectations eased. The US non-farm payrolls for January were mediocre, with job growth falling short of expectations while the unemployment rate fell slightly, slightly better than expected. Pay attention to the US CPI year-on-year on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price retreated slightly yesterday, exhibiting weak fluctuations in the minor cycle; there may be a chance to retest the support area again in the short term, where one can consider short-selling but should take profits promptly. Focus on the support structure below, as a breach would weaken the market further. Overall, the daily chart shows a fluctuating downward trend, with a weak performance at a higher level and a short-term rebound emerging. The upper minor resistance area is around 1.0500-1.0550, while the lower support area is around 1.0180-1.0200.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, with pressure above and support below; watch for breakout direction in the future.

*Pre-market views, timely and limited, are merely predictions for reference and learning purposes. They do not constitute investment advice, and operating risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; transactions must be conducted with caution.