HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0212

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	OPEC releases monthly oil market report	★★★
05:30	US API crude oil inventory for the week ending February 7	★★★
21:30	US January unadjusted CPI yearly rate	★★★★★
	US January adjusted CPI monthly rate	★★★★
	US January adjusted core CPI monthly rate	★★★
	US January unadjusted core CPI yearly rate	★★★
23:00	Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers testimony to the House Financial Services Committee	★★★
	Trade ministers of EU countries hold video meeting to discuss US tariffs on steel and aluminum	★★★
23:30	US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending February 7	★★★★
	US EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending February 7	★★★
	US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending February 7	★★★
Next day 01:00	2027 FOMC voting member Bostic speaks on economic outlook	★★★
Next day 02:00	US 10-year Treasury auction results – winning bid rate for the week ending February 12	★★★
	US 10-year Treasury auction results – bid-to-cover ratio for the week ending February 12	★★★
Next day 02:30	Bank of Canada releases minutes from January monetary policy meeting	★★★

Varieties	Views	Support range	Resistance range
US Dollar Index	High-level fluctuations	107-107.5	110-111
Gold	Fluctuating with a bias to strength	2850-2870	2980-3000
Oil	Short-term fluctuations	69-70	79-80
Euro	Short-term fluctuations	1.0180-1.0200	1.0500-1.0550

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited in scope, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remains strong, economic activity is steadily expanding, inflation levels still show some signs of being slightly elevated, expectations for monetary policy easing have cooled, and new government policies are to be monitored. In January, non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 143,000 jobs, below expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.0%, indicating firm labor market performance. December’s core PCE price index was flat compared to the previous value; January’s ISM manufacturing PMI slightly increased. Attention is on Tuesday’s Senate hearing for the Federal Reserve Chairman and Wednesday’s unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for January.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index saw a slight pullback during the night session, with small cycles showing fluctuations, currently at a relatively high position, and has not clearly broken the support structure, suggesting the potential to continue testing resistance levels upwards. In the short term, there may be a continuing fluctuation pattern, with a focus on whether it can reach new highs. Overall, the larger trend indicates strong fluctuations with a short-term adjustment. The important resistance area is around 110-111, while the support area is around 107-107.5.

Viewpoint: High-level fluctuations, support levels have not been broken, with signs of stabilizing in the small cycle.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited in scope, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, and the situation in Eastern Europe is turbulent and uncertain. At the end of January, the European Central Bank made its monetary policy decision, cutting interest rates for the fourth consecutive time by 25 basis points, with inflation basically meeting expectations, but economic performance remains weak and under pressure. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, with economic activity performing well and inflation levels still high, easing some rate cut expectations. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed a mediocre performance, with the number of new jobs decreasing, below expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly improved, slightly better than expected. Attention will be on Wednesday’s U.S. CPI year-on-year data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices spiked yesterday and then fell back, continuing to hit new highs, with overall performance still strong; currently, it is in a small cycle correction. Focus on the signals for stopping the decline and stabilizing, and in the short term, the main strategy remains to buy on dips while taking profits on rallies. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure is sound, with daily fluctuations moving upward, and prices hitting new highs repeatedly. Resistance levels may lie around 2980-3000, while support levels for smaller degrees may be around 2850-2870.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a strong bias, mainly focusing on short-term buys, taking profits on rallies.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited in scope, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The January EIA monthly report slightly raised the forecast for crude oil prices in 2025; the OPEC monthly report maintained the expectations for global crude oil demand growth in 2025, slightly raising the forecast for global economic growth in 2025-2026; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreements, with the committee agreeing to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, consistent with prior plans. Attention is on the monthly reports from major organizations like OPEC, and focus on EIA crude oil inventory data.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil prices rose slightly yesterday, entering a small cycle rebound phase; they are currently at a small degree resistance level, and caution should be exercised against potential market pullbacks as the short-term outlook may be tilted towards a fluctuating structure. Overall, crude prices are showing strong fluctuations with signs of stability at a higher level, but are expected to enter a correction in the short term. The upper resistance area is around 79-80, while the lower support area is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, focusing on the support area and paying attention to signals of a second bounce and stabilization.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited in scope, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the European Central Bank made its monetary policy decision, cutting interest rates for the fourth consecutive time by 25 basis points, with inflation basically meeting expectations and expected to return to mid-term targets this year; the economy still faces challenges, and demand recovery may continue to be supported by income and policy effects. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, with overall economic performance being strong and easing expectations for monetary loosening. Non-farm payroll performance in January was mediocre, with the number of new jobs decreased, not meeting expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly fell, slightly better than expectations. Attention is on Wednesday’s U.S. CPI year-on-year data.

Technical Analysis:

The euro recently experienced slight fluctuations, with the lower support structure not being broken; however, there is also selling pressure above. In the short term, it may continue to trade in a fluctuating manner, with future market attention focused on the direction of the breakout. Overall, prices are at relatively low levels, with a daily fluctuating structure and no significant stabilization signals appearing. The upper small degree resistance area is around 1.0500-1.0550, while the lower support area is around 1.0180-1.0200.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations, with pressure above and support below, focusing on the direction of the breakout in the future.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited in scope, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only, not constituting investment advice; operate at your own risk. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.