HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0311

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	U.S. and Ukrainian officials hold their first talks in Saudi Arabia	★★★
18:00	U.S. February NFIB Small Business Confidence Index	★★★
22:00	U.S. January JOLTs Job Openings	★★★
Following day 00:00	EIA releases the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Slightly weaker	103.5-104	107-107.5
Gold	Slightly weaker	2830-2850	2920-2930
Crude Oil	Slightly weaker	65-66	70-71
Euro	Slightly stronger	1.0450-1.0500	1.0850-1.0900

*Pre-market insights, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are speculative, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by oneself. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, the labor market remained strong, economic activity expanded steadily, inflation levels still showed a slight upward trend, and expectations for monetary policy easing cooled somewhat, with attention on new government policies. In February, the non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly lower than expected, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.1%, indicating a slight easing in the labor market. January’s non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year came in at 3.0%, slightly higher than previous values and expectations. The January core PCE price index year-on-year saw a slight decline, in line with expectations. Attention is now on Wednesday’s U.S. February CPI year-on-year data.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. dollar index saw slight fluctuations yesterday, with a slowdown in the decline rate for the short term, possibly maintaining oscillation or showing a rebound. If there are short positions, one may consider reducing positions and taking profits on dips while watching for signs of stabilization. Overall, after high-level oscillation on the daily chart, there are signs of weakening, and a continued weak pullback may occur in the short term. The upper resistance area is around 107-107.5, and the lower support area is around 103.5-104.

Viewpoint: Slightly weaker oscillation, with a slowdown in the decline rate for the short term; consider reducing short positions and taking profits on dips.

*Pre-market insights, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are speculative, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by oneself. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to worsen, while the situation in Eastern Europe shows signs of easing and remains uncertain. The European Central Bank will decide on rates at the beginning of March, having cut rates by 25 basis points for the fifth consecutive time, as inflation progresses smoothly and economic growth risks lean toward the downside. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with solid economic performance but inflation levels remaining high, which alleviates rate cut expectations. The U.S. February non-farm data indicates slight easing, with job additions marginally below expectations and the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%. Attention is now on Wednesday’s U.S. CPI data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices are oscillating and retreating on the daily chart, facing selling pressure from above, and there are signs of weakening in the short term, necessitating caution for further pullback risks. In the short term, one might try to capture rebound high-short opportunities for timely profits. From a larger perspective, the upward structure is intact; however, with daily high-level oscillation and retreat, vigilance is necessary for potential market corrections. The upper pressure level may be around 2920-2930, while the lower minor support level is likely around 2830-2850.

Viewpoint: Slightly weaker oscillation, with potential selling pressure forming from above; one may consider attempting rebound high-short opportunities.

*Pre-market insights, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are speculative, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by oneself. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the February EIA Monthly Report, the growth forecast for global crude oil demand for this year and next remains unchanged, with a slight adjustment to oil prices in 2025; the OPEC Monthly Report also maintains the forecast for global oil demand growth for this year and next; the IEA Monthly Report has slightly raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreement, and the committee agreed to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, in line with prior plans. Attention is on EIA crude oil inventories and the monthly reports from major organizations such as OPEC.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil futures have fluctuated downwards during the night session, with performance in the short cycle still relatively weak. Current prices are at a relatively low level, so there may be fluctuations or a rebound; it is not advisable to continue short positions, and anyone with short positions should consider taking profits on dips. Overall, crude oil prices are in a low-level fluctuation and correction, with no signs of stabilization. The pressure zone above is near 70-71, while the support zone below is near 65-66.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight weakness, near the support zone. Anyone with short positions should consider taking profits on dips.

*Pre-market insights, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are speculative, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by oneself. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In early March, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision led to a fifth consecutive 25 basis point cut, with the progress of inflation decline being smooth. The GDP growth forecast for this year and next has been slightly revised down, with economic growth risks leaning toward the downside, and tariffs potentially bringing negative impacts. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision maintained rates, with overall economic performance being strong, alleviating expectations for further easing. February’s U.S. nonfarm data showed a slight easing, with new employment numbers marginally below expectations and the unemployment rate up slightly to 4.1%. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI showed little change. Attention is on the U.S. CPI data coming out on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has fluctuated slightly during the day, with little volatility. The short cycle has tested the pressure but has not significantly breached the current pressure zone. Those with long positions should consider taking profits at highs, while also watching whether a clear breakthrough in this structure can occur. Overall, prices are at relatively low levels, showing a daily fluctuation structure, which may indicate a strong reversal signal. The upper-level small pressure zone is near 1.0850-1.0900, while the lower support zone is near 1.0450-1.0500.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight strength; those with long positions should consider taking profits at highs, while focusing on whether prices can break through resistance levels.

*Pre-market insights, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are speculative, for reference and learning only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by oneself. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.