HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0324

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	Russian and Ukrainian delegations held talks with the US delegation in Saudi Arabia.	★★★
16:15	France’s March Manufacturing PMI final value	★★★
16:30	Germany’s March Manufacturing PMI preliminary value	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s March Manufacturing PMI final value	★★★
17:30	UK’s March Manufacturing PMI final value	★★★
	UK’s March Services PMI final value	★★★
21:45	US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value	★★★
	US March S&P Global Services PMI final value	★★★
Next day 02:00	Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks on “UK Economic Growth.”	★★★
Next day 03:10	Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks on “Small Business Lending.”	★★★

Variety	Viewpoints	Support Range	Pressure Range
US Dollar Index	Fluctuation rebound	103-103.5	106-107
Gold	Short-term fluctuations	2980-3000	3030-3050
Crude Oil	Fluctuation rebound	65-66	70-71
Euro	Short-term adjustment	1.0750-1.0800	1.0950-1.1000

*The pre-market viewpoints are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and you assume your own operational risks. Investment is risky; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In March, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained the interest rate, the labor market remained stable, inflation expectations for the next two years were raised, and GDP growth expectations for the next three years were lowered. Starting in April, the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow, and there is uncertainty in tariff policies. In February, non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly below expectations, and the unemployment rate saw a slight increase, indicating a slight easing in the labor market. The February unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate recorded at 2.8%, slightly below the previous value and expectations. The January core PCE price index year-on-year slightly retreated, in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The US Dollar Index saw a slight rebound last week with signs of stabilization in a small cycle of consolidation. The daily chart shows a fluctuating upward trend, possibly still having upward space. In the short term, it may maintain a rebound mindset, and short-term long opportunities could be attempted. Overall, the price is showing signs of a high-level pullback with slowing downward speed, and a rebound market may appear in the short term. The upper pressure area is around 106-107, and the lower support area is around 103-103.5.

Viewpoints: Fluctuation rebound, small cycle stabilization signs may lead to a continuation of the rebound market.

*The pre-market viewpoints are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and you assume your own operational risks. Investment is risky; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The ongoing deterioration of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the easing situation in Eastern Europe create uncertainties. In early March, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision saw a consecutive fifth 25 basis points cut, with inflation progressing smoothly and economic growth risks skewed downward. The Federal Reserve’s March interest rate decision remained unchanged, showing a solid labor market while lowering GDP growth expectations and planning to slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction. The US February non-farm payroll data showed a slight easing, with an increase of jobs marginally below expectations and the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.1%; the unadjusted February CPI year-on-year rate recorded at 2.8%, slightly below expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Last week, gold prices surged and then retreated, with a small cycle showing a pullback. The support area was not significantly broken, but upward pressure has formed. In the short term, there may be fluctuations as the current price is close to the resistance level. If it breaks through, the trend may continue to be strong. From a larger perspective, the upward structure remains intact, with the daily line oscillating upward while a short cycle shows a pullback. The minor resistance level is near 3030-3050, while the minor support level is around 2980-3000.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations; pay attention to the effectiveness of the current resistance level.

*The pre-market viewpoints are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and you assume your own operational risks. Investment is risky; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The March EIA monthly report basically maintains the forecast for crude oil prices in 2025, with a slight upward adjustment to the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2026. The OPEC monthly report keeps the global crude oil demand growth forecast unchanged for this year and next. The IEA monthly report slightly lowered the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreement, with the committee agreeing to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, consistent with the prior plan. EIA crude oil inventories have seen a slight increase, which may put pressure on oil prices; attention should be focused on changes in supply and demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil has recently rebounded slightly, with the daily line oscillating upward. The short cycle has repeatedly tested the important support area below but has not effectively broken it. Prices are at relatively low levels, leading to a higher probability of a short-term rebound; short positions may be attempted for timely profits. Overall, oil prices are oscillating and rebounding at low levels, with no signs of a major stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 70-71, while the lower support area is near 65-66.

Viewpoint: Oscillating rebound near the support area may continue the rebound trend.

*The pre-market viewpoints are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and you assume your own operational risks. Investment is risky; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the beginning of March saw a continuous fifth rate cut of 25 basis points. The progress on inflation is proceeding smoothly, with slight downward adjustments to GDP growth forecasts for this year and next, and economic growth risks leaning towards the downside. In March, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remained unchanged, raising inflation expectations while lowering GDP growth forecasts, aiming to slow down the tapering pace. U.S. non-farm data for February showed slight easing, with new job numbers slightly below expectations and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.1%. There was little change in the Eurozone manufacturing PMI.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price surged and then retreated last week, with a small cycle entering a pullback. There may be selling pressure above, so be cautious about the short-term continuation of the pullback. Currently, it is at a minor support level; observe whether the price breaks down significantly, otherwise it may follow a sideways structure. Overall, the daily line is oscillating upward, and there may be significant resistance in the upper area. The upper pressure area is around 1.0950-1.1000, while the minor support area is near 1.0750-1.0800.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment; pay attention to the current support structure and be wary of the possibility of continued pullback.

*The pre-market viewpoints are time-sensitive and limited, are predictive in nature, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and you assume your own operational risks. Investment is risky; trading requires caution.