HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0325

Time	Data and Events	Importance
17:00	Germany’s March IFO Business Climate Index	★★★
19:00	UK’s March CBI Retail Sales Balance	★★★
20:40	Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak on “Economic Outlook and Entrepreneurship”	★★★
21:00	U.S. January FHFA House Price Index Month-on-Month	★★★
	U.S. January S&P/CS 20-City Non-Seasonally Adjusted House Price Index Year-on-Year	★★★
21:05	FOMC permanent voting member Williams will give opening remarks at an event	★★★
22:00	U.S. February New Home Sales Annualized	★★★
	U.S. March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index	★★★
	U.S. March Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	★★★

Varieties	Views	Support Zone	Resistance Zone
U.S. Dollar Index	Volatile rebound	103-103.5	106-107
Gold	Short-term volatility	2980-3000	3030-3050
Crude Oil	Volatile rebound	65-66	70-71
Euro	Short-term adjustment	1.0750-1.0800	1.0950-1.1000

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In March, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained the interest rate, the labor market remains stable, revised up inflation expectations for this and next year, and revised down GDP growth expectations for the next three years, slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in April, with uncertainties in tariff policies. The February non-farm data recorded an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose slightly, indicating a slight softening in the labor market. The February unadjusted CPI year-on-year was recorded at 2.8%, slightly below the previous value and expectations. The January Core PCE Price Index year-on-year saw a slight decline, meeting expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index continued its rebound yesterday, with small cycles oscillating upward, showing moderate strength with bulls slightly prevailing, and likely still room for upward movement; it may maintain a volatile rebound strategy in the short term. Overall, the price shows signs of a high-level correction with slowing decline, and there may be a rebound trend in the short term. The upper resistance zone is around 106-107, while the lower support zone is around 103-103.5.

Viewpoint: Volatile rebound, signs of stabilization in small cycles, likely to continue the rebound trend.

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to worsen, while the situation in Eastern Europe is easing, creating uncertainties. In early March, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision resulted in the fifth consecutive 25 basis points rate cut; inflation progress is on track, and economic growth risks are tilted downward. In March, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate, the labor market remained stable, GDP growth expectations were revised down, and the pace of balance sheet reduction will be slowed. U.S. February non-farm data shows slight easing, with new job creation slightly below expectations and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.1%; the February unadjusted CPI year-on-year was recorded at 2.8%, slightly below expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The gold price slightly retreated in the night session but did not clearly break below support. The short-term trend is oscillating, and if it can successfully break through the resistance level, the market may strengthen again; otherwise, it may maintain an oscillating structure in the short term, so attention should be paid to the direction of the breakout. In terms of the long-term trend, the upward structure remains intact, the daily line is oscillating upwards, and the short-term has encountered a pullback. The upper short-term resistance level is around 3030-3050, while the lower short-term support level is around 2980-3000.

Viewpoint: Short-term oscillation, pay attention to support and resistance levels, and watch for breakout directions.

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The March EIA monthly report basically maintains the crude oil price for 2025 and slightly raises the global crude oil demand growth expectation for 2026. The OPEC monthly report keeps the global crude oil demand growth expectations for this year and next year unchanged. The IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global oil demand growth expectation for 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreement, and the committee agreed to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, in line with previous plans. EIA crude oil inventories increased slightly, which may put pressure on oil prices, so attention should be paid to changes in the supply-demand structure. Watch for EIA crude oil inventory on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil rose slightly yesterday, showing a short-term oscillating upward pattern with no signs of weakening. The price is at a relatively low level, with space to the resistance level above. In the short term, the trend may continue to oscillate and rebound. Overall, crude oil prices are rebounding from a low level, and there are no signs of stabilization on a larger scale. The upper pressure zone is around 70-71, and the lower support zone is around 65-66.

Viewpoint: Oscillating rebound, with a short-term bias towards strength, likely to continue the rebound trend.

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s rate decision in early March resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut for the fifth consecutive time, with inflation progress proceeding smoothly. There is a slight downward adjustment to GDP growth expectations for this year and next, with economic growth risks leaning downward, and tariffs may bring negative impacts. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision in March remains unchanged, raising inflation expectations while lowering GDP growth expectations, indicating a slowdown in balance sheet reduction. US non-farm data for February showed slight easing, with new job creation slightly below expectations and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.1%. In the Eurozone and in economies like France and Germany, the manufacturing PMI values were slightly better than previous and expected values.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price slightly retreated in the night session, showing signs of weakening in the short term, and currently remains in the support area. If it breaks below this, caution is warranted as it may continue to pull back, at which point short opportunities could be attempted. Overall, the daily line is oscillating upwards, and the important upper resistance area may encounter obstacles in the short term. The upper pressure area is around 1.0950-1.1000, while the lower short-term support area is around 1.0750-1.0800.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, with signs of weakening in the short cycle; caution is needed for the market to continue to pull back.

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment involves risks; trading requires caution.