HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0328

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	U.S. President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney reportedly held a call on Friday.	★★★
07:50	The Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from the March Monetary Policy Meeting.	★★★
15:00	Germany’s Gfk Consumer Confidence Index for April.	★★★
	Final value of the UK’s GDP for the fourth quarter.	★★★
	UK’s retail sales month-on-month for February, seasonally adjusted.	★★★
	UK’s current account for the fourth quarter.	★★★
16:00	Switzerland’s KOF Economic Leading Indicator for March.	★★★
16:55	Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for March.	★★★
	Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for March.	★★★
18:00	Eurozone’s Industrial Sentiment Index for March.	★★★
20:30	Canada’s GDP month-on-month for January.	★★★
	U.S. year-on-year Core PCE Price Index for February.	★★★★
	U.S. Personal Spending Month-on-Month for February.	★★★
	U.S. Core PCE Price Index Month-on-Month for February.	★★★
22:00	U.S. preliminary one-year inflation expectations for March.	★★★
	Initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for March.	★★★★

Varieties	Views	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Oscillating rebound	103-103.5	106-107
Gold	Oscillating strength	2980-3000	3080-3100
Crude Oil	Oscillating rebound	65-66	70-71
Euro	Short-term correction	1.0680-1.0700	1.0950-1.1000

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, representing a forecast only for reference and learning; they do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are to be borne by the individual. Investment involves risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In March, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained solid, inflation expectations for this year and next were raised, while GDP growth forecasts for the next three years were lowered. The pace of balance sheet reduction will slow starting in April, and there is uncertainty in tariff policies. February non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose slightly, indicating some easing in the labor market. The seasonally unadjusted CPI year-on-year for February was 2.8%, slightly lower than the previous value and expectations. Attention is on the February Core PCE Price Index to be released on Friday.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index saw a slight retreat yesterday, with small cycles showing oscillations. It has been performing relatively strong recently without signs of weakening, suggesting there may still be upward potential, and it may maintain an oscillating rebound strategy in the short term. Overall, price corrections at high levels are slowing down, and a rebound may occur soon. Resistance zones are around 106-107, and support zones are around 103-103.5.

Viewpoint: Oscillating rebound, with signs of stabilization in small cycles, may extend the rebound trend.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, representing a forecast only for reference and learning; they do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are to be borne by the individual. Investment involves risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, while the situation in Eastern Europe is easing, with uncertainties present. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in early March saw a consecutive fifth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation making steady progress and economic growth risks leaning downward. In March, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision remained unchanged, with a stable labor market, a downward adjustment of GDP growth expectations, and a moderation of tapering pace. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for February showed slight easing, with a small drop in new jobs below expectations and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.1%; February’s unadjusted CPI annual rate recorded 2.8%, slightly below expectations.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices surged significantly yesterday, closing the day with a large bullish candle, and the short-term cycle reached a historical high again, currently showing strong performance with no signs of weakening yet, emphasizing the strategy of adding positions on dips and reducing holdings on highs. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure remains intact, with the daily chart showing fluctuating upward movement and the short-term cycle exhibiting a pullback. The upper resistance level is near 3080-3100, and the lower support level is near 2980-3000.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating strongly, prices reaching new highs, with a strategy of adding positions on dips and reducing holdings on highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, representing a forecast only for reference and learning; they do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are to be borne by the individual. Investment involves risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The March EIA monthly report maintains projections for crude oil prices in 2025 and slightly adjusts the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2026 upwards; the OPEC monthly report keeps unchanged the global crude oil demand growth expectations for this year and next; the IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global oil demand growth expectations for 2025. At the early February OPEC+ meeting, previous agreements on oil production were adhered to, and the committee agreed to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, consistent with prior plans. EIA crude oil inventories significantly decreased, which may support oil prices in the short term; changes to the supply-demand structure should be monitored.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil fluctuated slightly during the day, showing signs of slowing bullish momentum. The current price is close to the resistance zone, which may present some obstacles. If there are long positions, consider reducing holdings to secure profits, while also watching if the current structure can break out significantly upwards; otherwise, fluctuations in the market could occur. Overall, crude oil prices are in a low range, bouncing back without showing significant stabilization signs. The upper resistance zone is around 70-71, and the lower support zone is around 65-66.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating rebound, nearing resistance levels, consider securing profits on long positions.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, representing a forecast only for reference and learning; they do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are to be borne by the individual. Investment involves risks, and trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s rate decision in early March included a consecutive fifth rate cut of 25 basis points, inflation declines progressed smoothly, and GDP growth expectations for this year and next were slightly lowered, with economic growth risks leaning downward, and tariffs potentially causing negative impacts. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision in March remained unchanged, with an increase in inflation expectations and a downward adjustment of GDP growth forecasts, leading to a slowdown in tapering pace. U.S. non-farm payroll data for February showed slight easing, with new job growth slightly below expectations and a small rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. In the Eurozone as well as Germany and France, the manufacturing PMI values were slightly better than the previous and expected values.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rose slightly yesterday, showing signs of a short-term rebound, but there might be selling pressure above. There is a high probability of a continued short-term pullback, and attempts to initiate short positions can be considered, with the need to secure profits promptly. Overall, the previous price rise touched an important upper resistance area, and short-term resistance may occur. The upper resistance zone is around 1.0950-1.1000, while the lower minor support zone is around 1.0680-1.0700.

Viewpoint: Short-term pullback, signs of resistance in the short-term rebound, opportunities for high-end selling can be attempted.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, representing a forecast only for reference and learning; they do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are to be borne by the individual. Investment involves risks, and trading requires caution.