HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0414

Time	Data and events	Importance
To be determined	U.S. President Trump announces more information regarding semiconductor (tariffs).	★★★
	OPEC publishes monthly oil market report.	★★★
20:30	Canada’s February wholesale sales month-on-month.	★★★
23:00	U.S. March New York Fed one-year inflation expectations.	★★★
Next day 00:00	Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on “Navigating Economic Fog.”	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Pressure range
U.S. Dollar Index	Slightly weak fluctuations	99-100	103-104
Gold	Slightly strong fluctuations	3100-3130	3250-3280
Oil	Short-term rebound	56-57	62-63
Euro	Slightly strong fluctuations	1.0950-1.1000	1.1450-1.1500

*Pre-market viewpoint, has timeliness and limitations, is a prediction for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, operational risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental analysis:

In the March Federal Reserve meeting, interest rates were kept unchanged, the labor market remains stable, inflation expectations for this year and next year were raised, and GDP growth expectations for the next three years were lowered. Starting in April, the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow, and there is uncertainty regarding tariff policies. In March, the non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 228,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate, indicating strong labor market performance. The tariff policy adds market risks and uncertainties. In March, the unadjusted CPI year-on-year showed a slight decline, and future interest rate cut expectations are rising.

Technical analysis:

The U.S. dollar index performed relatively weakly last week, with prices breaking below the previous low support area and no signs of stabilization yet. It is currently near the support area, and the short-term decline is slowing down, making it inadvisable to chase short positions; there may be fluctuations or rebound trends. Overall, prices are correcting from a high level, the daily line shows a downward trend without any signs of stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 103-104, while the lower support area is around 99-100.

Viewpoint: Slightly weak fluctuations, prices are close to the support area, short-term may fluctuate or rebound.

*Pre-market viewpoint, has timeliness and limitations, is a prediction for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, operational risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental analysis:

Ongoing deterioration of Middle East geopolitical conflicts, and the Eastern European situation remains uncertain in the short term. The European Central Bank’s rate decision in early March, for the fifth consecutive time, reduced rates by 25 basis points. Inflation is progressing well, and the risk of economic growth is leaning downward. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision in March kept the rate unchanged, with a stable labor market, lower GDP growth expectations, and plans to slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction. The U.S. March non-farm data showed a significant increase in jobs far exceeding expectations, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate; the March CPI year-on-year showed a slight decline, which has led to rising expectations for interest rate cuts; U.S. tariff policies may stimulate the safe-haven attributes of gold.

Technical analysis:

The price of gold surged significantly last week, with a large weekly bullish candlestick, and the short-term continues to reach new highs. However, it is inadvisable to chase prices excessively; short-term fluctuations may occur, and if there are long positions, profits should be taken at highs, while being cautious of short-term correction risks. From a larger perspective, the upward structure is maintained, with daily prices significantly increasing and reaching new highs without signs of weakening. The upper pressure level is around 3250-3280, while the lower support level is around 3100-3130.

Viewpoint: Slightly strong fluctuations, look to buy on dips, and take profits at highs.

*Pre-market viewpoint, has timeliness and limitations, is a prediction for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, operational risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental analysis:

The April EIA monthly report basically maintains crude oil production for this year and the next, slightly lowering global crude oil demand for this year and the next. In March, the OPEC monthly report maintained its growth outlook for global crude oil demand for this year and the next; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered its growth outlook for global oil demand in 2025. At the beginning of April, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting maintained the current oil production policy and agreed to unexpected production increases in May. U.S. tariff policies are dampening global economic expectations, which could put pressure on oil prices from the demand side. EIA crude oil inventories increased by 2.55 million barrels, indicating a relatively loose supply-demand structure.

Technical analysis:

U.S. crude oil saw a bottom reversal last week, with a short-term oscillating trend, prices at relatively low levels, and signs of slowing decline, possibly leading to a rebound. Watch for second retest stabilization signals and attempt short-term long positions for timely profit, while also paying attention to whether the resistance level can be broken. Overall, crude oil prices are performing weakly, having broken important support levels, without signs of stopping the decline. The upper pressure area is around 62-63, and the lower support area is around 56-57.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, pay attention to second retest stabilization signals, and attempt long opportunities.

*Pre-market viewpoint, has timeliness and limitations, is a prediction for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, operational risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental analysis:

The European Central Bank’s rate decision in early March included its fifth consecutive 25 basis point cut, with inflation easing smoothly and a slight downward adjustment to GDP growth forecasts for this year and the next. Economic growth risks are leaning toward the downside, and tariffs may have negative impacts. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision in March was unchanged, while it raised inflation forecasts and lowered GDP growth forecasts, indicating a slowing pace of balance sheet reduction. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for March showed employment numbers significantly exceeding expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate; March’s CPI annual rate showed a slight decline. In the eurozone and economies like France and Germany, manufacturing PMI values were slightly better than previous and expected values.

Technical analysis:

The euro has recently performed strongly, with a significant daily increase, approaching the upper pressure area, and small cycles showing oscillations. Caution is advised for possible short-term corrections; if holding long positions, consider taking profits on rallies. Overall, following a substantial increase in previous trends, signs of stabilizing after a short-term correction may lead to a recovery in upward trends. The upper pressure area is around 1.1450-1.1500, and the lower support area is around 1.0950-1.1000.

Viewpoint: Oscillating toward strength, mainly focusing on short-term long strategies, and taking profits on rallies.

*Pre-market viewpoint, has timeliness and limitations, is a prediction for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, operational risks are self-assumed. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.