HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0418

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting is held.	★★★
07:30	Japan’s March core CPI year-on-year	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Weak fluctuation	99-100	103-104
Gold	Strong fluctuation	3200-3220	3380-3400
Crude Oil	Short-term rebound	56-57	65-66
Euro	Strong fluctuation	1.0950-1.1000	1.1450-1.1500

*Pre-market viewpoints are timely and limited; they are predictions for reference and learning purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. The risks of operations are to be borne by the investors themselves. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the March meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, the labor market remained stable, inflation expectations were raised for this year and next, while GDP growth expectations were lowered for the next three years. Starting in April, the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow, and there is uncertainty in tariff policies. March’s non-farm data showed an increase in employment of 228,000, far exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate rose slightly, indicating a strong labor market. Tariff policies add market risks and uncertainties. The year-on-year CPI without seasonal adjustment in March slightly declined, leading to rising expectations for interest rate cuts in the future.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index experienced slight fluctuations yesterday, with narrowed volatility and signs of short-term consolidation, but there has yet to be a stabilization signal. It is currently near the support area, so excessive shorting is not advisable. It may continue to fluctuate or show a rebound. Pay attention to signs of stabilization. Overall, prices have retraced from high levels, breaking important support areas without showing stabilization signs. The upper resistance area is near 103-104, while the lower support area is near 99-100.

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuation; prices are close to the support area, and short-term fluctuations or rebounds may occur.

*Pre-market viewpoints are timely and limited; they are predictions for reference and learning purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. The risks of operations are to be borne by the investors themselves. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are escalating, and there is uncertainty in the Eastern European situation. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision resulted in a continuous sixth interest rate cut of 25 basis points, inflation is declining smoothly, and economic resilience has somewhat increased. The Federal Reserve’s March interest rate decision kept rates unchanged, the labor market is solid, GDP growth expectations were lowered, and the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow. The U.S. March non-farm data showed a significant exceedance of expectations in employment, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate; the March CPI year-on-year slightly declined, leading to a rise in interest rate cut expectations for the Federal Reserve. U.S. tariff policies may stimulate the safe-haven properties of gold.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices slightly retreated during the overnight session, showing minor adjustments in the short term, but it is still maintaining a strong outlook without signs of weakness. However, excessive chasing of prices is not advisable, and one should be cautious of risks of market corrections, with a primary strategy of taking profits on highs while considering buying on dips. In the long term, it maintains an upward structure; daily gains have been significant, reaching new highs without signs of weakness. The upper pressure level may be around 3380-3400, while the lower support level is around 3200-3220.

Viewpoint: Strong fluctuation; consider buying on dips and taking profits on highs.

*Pre-market viewpoints are timely and limited; they are predictions for reference and learning purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. The risks of operations are to be borne by the investors themselves. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The April EIA monthly report basically maintains crude oil production for this and next year, with slight downward adjustments to global crude oil demand for this and next year; the OPEC monthly report slightly lowers the global economic growth forecast for this year and next year and revises down the growth forecast for global crude oil demand for this and next year; the IEA monthly report lowers the growth forecast for global oil demand in 2025. At the beginning of April, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting maintained the oil production policy unchanged and agreed to a higher-than-expected production increase in May. The uncertainty in US tariff policy may affect demand. EIA crude oil inventories showed a slight increase, with a relatively loose supply and demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil futures rebounded significantly during the night trading session, experiencing short-term fluctuations without signs of weakness, indicating there may still be room for further price increases. In the short term, a rebound trend may be maintained, and one might consider opportunities to buy low while reducing holdings to secure profits at high points. Overall, crude oil has performed relatively weakly recently, with prices having dropped significantly without showing major signs of stabilization. The upper pressure area is around 65-66, while the lower support area is around 56-57.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, consider buying low opportunities, and seize profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market viewpoints are timely and limited; they are predictions for reference and learning purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. The risks of operations are to be borne by the investors themselves. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In April, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision cut rates by 25 basis points for the sixth consecutive time, with inflation returning smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. They rely on data, assess step-by-step, and dynamically adjust monetary policy stances while paying attention to trade conditions. The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged in March, raised inflation expectations, and lowered GDP growth expectations, indicating a slower reduction in balance sheet. The US non-farm payroll data for March saw employment numbers significantly exceed expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while the annual CPI for March saw a slight decline. The Eurozone and major economies like France and Germany saw manufacturing PMI values slightly better than previous and expected values.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has recently been mainly fluctuating with narrow movements within a range, experiencing multiple upward attempts without significantly creating new highs but also showing no signs of weakening. One should be wary of potential selling pressure above, and consider reducing positions when taking profits on long positions. Overall, the long-term upward structure remains intact, without signs of weakening. The upper pressure area is around 1.1450-1.1500, while the lower support area is around 1.0950-1.1000.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a bullish bias, be cautious of short-term pullbacks in the market, and reduce long positions to seize profits.

*Pre-market viewpoints are timely and limited; they are predictions for reference and learning purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. The risks of operations are to be borne by the investors themselves. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.