HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0422

Time	Data and Events	Importance
21:00	Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks at the Economic Liquidity Summit.	★★★
	IMF releases the World Economic Outlook report.	★★★
22:00	ECB President Lagarde interviews with CNBC.	★★★
	Eurozone April Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value.	★★★
	U.S. April Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.	★★★
Next day 01:40	2026 FOMC voting member Kashkari speaks.	★★★
Next day 02:30	NYMEX New York Crude Oil May futures rollover, completing final in-market trading.	★★★

Variety	Opinion	Support Zone	Pressure Zone
U.S. Dollar Index	Weak fluctuations	96-97	100-101
Gold	Strong fluctuations	3320-3350	3500-3550
Crude Oil	Short-term rebound	56-57	65-66
Euro	Strong fluctuations	1.1300-1.1350	1.1600-1.1650

* Pre-market viewpoint, time-sensitive and limited, serves as a prediction only for reference and learning, does not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by oneself. Investment entails risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the March Federal Reserve meeting, interest rates were held steady, the labor market remained solid, inflation expectations for this and next year were raised, GDP growth expectations for the next three years were lowered, and the pace of balance sheet reduction is set to slow from April. March non-farm data showed an increase of 228,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate and a strong performance from the labor market. Tariff policies add to market risks and uncertainties. The seasonally unadjusted CPI annual rate slightly dropped in March, and expectations for interest rate cuts have increased.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index continued to decline yesterday, showing weak performance with no signs of a bottoming out, likely still having room to fall, and the short-term outlook may maintain a weak fluctuation perspective. Overall, prices have retreated from high levels, breaking important support areas, with no signs of stabilization yet. The upper pressure area is around 100-101, and the lower support area is around 96-97.

Opinion: Weak fluctuations; daily fluctuations are moving downwards, and short-term cycles are continuing to create new lows.

* Pre-market viewpoint, time-sensitive and limited, serves as a prediction only for reference and learning, does not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by oneself. Investment entails risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are escalating, and there are uncertainties in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation retreating smoothly and economic resilience increasing. The Federal Reserve’s March interest rate decision held steady, with the labor market stable, GDP growth expectations lowered, and plans to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction. The U.S. March non-farm data showed job creation significantly exceeding expectations, along with a slight rise in the unemployment rate; March CPI annual rate saw a slight decline, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts. U.S. tariff policies may stimulate gold’s safe-haven attributes.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices surged significantly yesterday, performing strongly in recent times, with short cycles continually creating historical highs and showing no signs of weakness, likely maintaining a strong fluctuation structure in the short term, primarily focusing on buying on dips and selling on highs. From a longer-term perspective, the upward structure is maintained, with significant daily rallies and new highs, showing no signs of weakness. The upper pressure level may be around 3500-3550, while the lower support level is around 3320-3350.

Opinion: Strong fluctuations; focus on buying on dips and selling on highs.

* Pre-market viewpoint, time-sensitive and limited, serves as a prediction only for reference and learning, does not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by oneself. Investment entails risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the April EIA monthly report, the crude oil production for this year and next year was largely maintained, while the global crude oil demand for this year and next year was slightly revised downwards; the OPEC monthly report slightly lowered the expected global economic growth rate for the next two years and revised down the global crude oil demand growth expectations for this year and next year; the IEA monthly report lowered the global oil demand growth expectation for 2025. At the early April OPEC+ ministerial meeting, the oil production policy remained unchanged, agreeing to an unexpected increase in production in May. The uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies may affect the demand side. EIA crude oil inventories slightly increased, and the supply-demand structure is relatively loose.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil prices fell slightly yesterday, with a small decline, showing a short-term oscillating rebound trend. There is still distance to the upper pressure level, indicating there might still be upward space. In the short term, a rebound rhythm may be maintained, and low buying opportunities can be attempted for timely profits. Overall, crude oil has performed weakly recently, with prices significantly oversold, and no major stabilization signs have yet appeared. The upper pressure area is around 65-66, with the lower support area around 56-57.

Opinion: Short-term rebound, attempt to catch low buying opportunities for timely profits.

* Pre-market viewpoint, time-sensitive and limited, serves as a prediction only for reference and learning, does not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by oneself. Investment entails risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth cut of 25 basis points, as inflation eased smoothly and economic resilience increased. They rely on data, evaluate gradually, and dynamically adjust monetary policy stance while paying attention to trade dynamics. The Federal Reserve’s March interest rate decision remained unchanged, raised inflation expectations, and lowered GDP growth rate expectations, indicating a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction. In March, U.S. non-farm data showed a significant increase in employment numbers, with a slight rise in unemployment rate; March CPI year-on-year fell slightly. In the Eurozone and economies like France and Germany, the manufacturing PMI values were slightly better than previous and expected values.

Technical Analysis:

The euro maintained its upward trend yesterday, with a slight correction during the night, and no signs of weakening. After stabilizing, the probability of continuing to rise is high, and the short-term strategy may maintain a bullish outlook, looking for low buying opportunities on dips and taking profits on highs. Overall, the long-term upward structure remains intact, with no signs of weakening. The upper pressure area is around 1.1600-1.1650, with the lower support area around 1.1300-1.1350.

Opinion: Strong fluctuations; focus on buying on dips and selling on highs.

* Pre-market viewpoint, time-sensitive and limited, serves as a prediction only for reference and learning, does not constitute investment advice, and the risk of operation is borne by oneself. Investment entails risks; trading requires caution.