HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0117

Time	Data and Events	Importance
15:00	UK December seasonally adjusted retail sales month-on-month	★★★
17:00	Eurozone November seasonally adjusted current account	★★★
18:00	Eurozone December CPI year-on-year final value	★★★
	Eurozone December CPI month-on-month preliminary value	★★★
21:30	US December annualized housing starts	★★★
	US December building permits total	★★★
22:15	US December industrial production month-on-month	★★★

Variety	Perspective	Support range	Resistance range
US dollar index	Fluctuating with a tendency to be strong	107.5-108	110-111
Gold	Fluctuating with a tendency to be strong	2620-2630	2720-2730
Crude oil	Fluctuating with a tendency to be strong	68-70	79-80
Euro	Fluctuating with a tendency to be weak	0.9900-1.0000	1.0350-1.0400

*Pre-market perspective, time-sensitive and limited, is only a prediction, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, and risks in operations are borne by oneself. Investment carries risks; trading should be cautious.

Fundamental analysis:

In December, the Federal Reserve meeting once again cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the labor market remained robust, and the overall economy was strong, delaying the inflation target to 2027, with expectations for a slowdown in rate cuts and a cautious trend in monetary policy. The dot plot indicates two interest rate cuts next year. In December, non-farm payroll data showed a significant increase in job creation, exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate slightly dropping to 4.1%, reflecting a strong labor market. The core PCE price index for November was unchanged from the previous value; the ISM manufacturing PMI for December slightly increased; and the CPI for December rose slightly, generally in line with expectations.

Technical analysis:

The US dollar index fluctuated slightly yesterday, showing signs of encountering resistance in the overnight trading session, and there may be selling pressure above. Caution is needed regarding potential short-term adjustments in the market, with attention to support structures below and signs of stabilization in smaller cycles, which may lead to a recovery in the upward trend. Overall, the large-scale trend is fluctuating with a tendency to be strong, and there are no signs of weakening on the daily chart. Significant resistance areas are near 110-111, while smaller support areas are around 107.5-108.

Perspective: Fluctuating with a tendency to be strong, with a strategy of buying on dips and selling on highs during short-term retracements.

*Pre-market perspective, time-sensitive and limited, is only a prediction, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, and risks in operations are borne by oneself. Investment carries risks; trading should be cautious.

Fundamental analysis:

The worsening geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, coupled with instability in Eastern Europe and the Korean Peninsula. The European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time in December, with anti-inflation efforts progressing smoothly, though economic recovery is slower than expected. In December, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision to cut by 25 basis points was in line with expectations, and the labor market remains robust with strong overall economic performance and a slowdown in rate cut expectations. US non-farm data for December was favorable, with a significant increase in employment and a slight decrease in unemployment; the CPI for December rose moderately.

Technical analysis:

Gold prices extended their upward trend yesterday, with short-term fluctuations indicating a rising pattern. Currently, they are near resistance structures, so caution should be exercised regarding potential short-term pullbacks, and for those holding long positions, consider taking profits on highs while watching to see if prices can clearly break through resistance levels. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure remains intact, currently in high-level fluctuations, with attention to whether prices can achieve new highs. Resistance levels are around 2720-2730, while support levels are around 2620-2630.

Perspective: Fluctuating with a tendency to be strong, currently close to resistance structures, with strategies to take profits on highs for long positions.

*Pre-market perspective, time-sensitive and limited, is only a prediction, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, and risks in operations are borne by oneself. Investment carries risks; trading should be cautious.

Fundamental analysis:

In the January EIA monthly report, there is a slight upward adjustment to the 2025 crude oil price; in the OPEC monthly report, the expectation for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 is maintained, with a slight upward adjustment to the global economic growth forecast for 2025-2026; in the IEA monthly report, there is a slight downward adjustment to the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of December, the OPEC+ meeting extended the voluntary production cut measures until March next year, and the production increase plan has been postponed until April next year. Full production cuts and compensatory cuts have both been extended until the end of 2026. EIA crude oil inventories have continued to decrease, and this data has been subject to significant fluctuations recently, which may affect the supply-demand structure.

Technical analysis:

US crude oil fell slightly yesterday, with potential selling pressure close to overhead resistance levels. The short cycle has entered an adjustment phase, but the upward structure remains unchanged. In the short term, the main strategy is to buy on dips, taking profits on highs while focusing on whether prices can break through the resistance structure. Overall, after low-level fluctuations, oil prices are set to break upward, showing signs of stabilization on a larger scale. The important resistance area is around 79-80, while the support area is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: Oscillating slightly stronger, mainly adopting a buying on dips approach, with long positions taking profits on highs.

*Pre-market perspective, time-sensitive and limited, is only a prediction, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, and risks in operations are borne by oneself. Investment carries risks; trading should be cautious.

Fundamental analysis:

The European Central Bank’s December interest rate decision included a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, removing the language about keeping rates “restrictive.” Progress in combating inflation is steady, but economic recovery is slower than expected, with plans to halt bond purchases by the end of 2024. The US Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was in line with expectations, with a robust labor market and overall strong economic performance leading to expectations of a slowdown in interest rate cuts. The US December non-farm payroll data was strong, with a significant increase in employment and a slight drop in the unemployment rate, while December’s CPI rose moderately. Manufacturing PMI values for the eurozone and major economies showed a slight decline.

Technical analysis:

The euro saw slight intraday fluctuations with minimal volatility, and the current price is at a relatively low level. The short cycle shows a tendency to oscillate, but there are no signs of stabilization on a larger scale. In the short term, it may maintain a fluctuating or rebounding trend, with short positions taking profits on dips. Overall, daily oscillations are downward, showing weak performance at a larger scale with no signs of stop or stabilization yet. The minor pressure area above is around 1.0350-1.0400, while the support area below is around 0.9900-1.0000.

Viewpoint: Oscillating slightly weaker, with short-term potential for fluctuations or rebounds, and short positions taking profits on dips.

*Pre-market perspective, time-sensitive and limited, is only a prediction, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, and risks in operations are borne by oneself. Investment carries risks; trading should be cautious.