HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0120

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	The Davos World Economic Forum Annual Meeting will be held until January 24.	★★★
15:00	Germany’s December PPI month-on-month	★★★

Variety	Perspective	Support Zone	Resistance Zone
US Dollar Index	Fluctuating slightly stronger	107.5-108	110-111
Gold	Fluctuating slightly stronger	2620-2630	2720-2730
Crude Oil	Fluctuating slightly stronger	68-70	79-80
Euro	Fluctuating slightly weaker	0.9900-1.0000	1.0350-1.0400

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, based on forecasts, for reference and study only; they do not constitute investment advice, and you bear the risk of operations. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In December, the Federal Reserve’s meeting saw another rate cut of 25 basis points, the labor market remains robust, overall economic performance is strong, the inflation target has been postponed to 2027, expectations for rate cuts are slowing, and the dot plot indicates two rate cuts next year. December’s non-farm payroll data showed a significant increase in new jobs, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate slightly fell to 4.1%, showing a strong labor market. The core PCE price index for November was flat with the previous value; December’s ISM Manufacturing PMI rose slightly; December’s CPI rose slightly, largely in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The US dollar index fluctuated slightly during the day, currently at a relatively high price, possible selling pressure exists above, and caution is needed for short-term adjustments in the market, monitoring the support structure below, and observing signs of stabilization in the short cycle; the market may resume its upward trend at that time. Overall, there is a large-scale fluctuation leaning towards strength, showing an upward oscillation on the daily line with no signs of weakening. Important resistance area above is around 110-111, with a support area below around 107.5-108.

Opinion: Fluctuating slightly stronger; be cautious of further adjustments in the short cycle, considering the idea of reducing holdings on rallies by bulls.

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, based on forecasts, for reference and study only; they do not constitute investment advice, and you bear the risk of operations. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The worsening of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, along with the turbulent situation in Eastern Europe and the Korean Peninsula. In December, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision witnessed a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, progress in anti-inflation is going smoothly, but economic recovery is slower than expected. The Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision, which cut rates by 25 basis points, met expectations, the labor market is stable, and overall economic performance is strong, with expectations of slowing rate cuts. The US December non-farm data performed well with significantly increased employment numbers and a slight drop in the unemployment rate; US December CPI showed moderate growth.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices slightly retreated last Friday, encountering resistance at the upper pressure level; the short cycle has entered an adjustment phase, but there is also support below; focus on signs of stabilization from a decline, maintaining a low buy approach in the short term, reducing holdings to take profits on rallies while observing whether prices can significantly break above the resistance level. Looking at the longer cycle, the ascending structure remains intact, currently oscillating at high levels, and attention is paid to whether prices can reach new highs. The upper resistance level is around 2720-2730, and the lower support level is around 2620-2630.

Opinion: Fluctuating slightly stronger; maintaining a mainly long position approach, with profit-taking on rallies.

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, based on forecasts, for reference and study only; they do not constitute investment advice, and you bear the risk of operations. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The January EIA monthly report slightly raised the 2025 oil price; the OPEC monthly report maintained its growth outlook for global oil demand in 2025 and slightly raised the global economic growth expectations for 2025-2026; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the 2025 global oil demand growth outlook. In early December, the OPEC+ meeting extended voluntary production cuts to March next year, while the production increase plan was postponed to April next year, with all personnel’s cuts and compensatory cuts extended until the end of 2026. EIA crude oil inventories have been decreasing continuously, and this data has fluctuated significantly recently, which may impact the supply and demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

WTI crude oil is showing a short-term consolidation trend. It has reached significant resistance levels above, and the short-term price has encountered resistance and pulled back. Currently, it is at a minor support level. If it consolidates, the price may attempt to rally again and test resistance, but caution should be exercised regarding selling pressure above. If there are long positions, it is advisable to take profits by reducing positions at high levels. Overall, after a period of low-level consolidation, crude oil prices show signs of breaking upward, indicating stabilization at a larger level. The significant resistance zone is around 79-80, while the support zone is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: The trend is consolidating but slightly strong, with a focus on buying low, and for long positions, take profits by reducing at high levels.

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, based on forecasts, for reference and study only; they do not constitute investment advice, and you bear the risk of operations. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s December interest rate decision involved a third consecutive 25 basis point cut, removing the reference to maintaining a “restrictive” rate. Progress in combating inflation is going well, but the economic recovery is slower than expected, and plans to end the bond-buying program by the end of 2024 are in place. The December Federal Reserve interest rate decision saw a 25 basis point cut, which met expectations. The labor market remains robust, and the overall economic performance is strong, with expectations for a slowdown in rate cuts. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for December was strong, with a significant increase in employment numbers and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, while the December CPI rose moderately. The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone and major economies saw a slight decline.

Technical Analysis:

The euro has shown a consolidating trend recently, with intense battles between bulls and bears. The current price is relatively low, and there may be signs of stabilization in the short cycle, suggesting a possible short-term rebound. For short positions, it may be wise to take profits at low levels, and there could be opportunities to attempt small long positions for timely gains. Overall, the daily trend is oscillating downward, with large-scale performance appearing weak, and no signs of stabilization yet. The minor resistance level is around 1.0350-1.0400, while the support level is around 0.9900-1.0000.

Viewpoint: The trend is slightly weak, with a potential rebound in the short term. For any short positions, it is advisable to take profits at low levels.

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, based on forecasts, for reference and study only; they do not constitute investment advice, and you bear the risk of operations. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.