HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0122

Time	Data and Events	Importance
23:00	U.S. December Conference Board Leading Economic Index MoM	★★★
23:05	ECB President Lagarde speaks	★★★
Next day 05:30	U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending January 17	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
U.S. Dollar Index	Short-term Adjustment	107.5-108	110-111
Gold	Fluctuating with a bullish bias	2700-2720	2800-2850
Crude Oil	Short-term Pullback	68-70	79-80
Euro	Short-term Rebound	0.9900-1.0000	1.0400-1.0450

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In December, the Federal Reserve meeting again cut rates by 25 basis points, the labor market remains robust, and the overall economic performance is strong, postponing the inflation target to 2027, with expectations of a slowdown in rate cuts and a cautious approach to monetary policy. The dot plot indicates two rate cuts next year. December non-farm data showed a significant increase in new jobs, exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate slightly falling to 4.1%, indicating a strong labor market. The November core PCE price index remained flat compared to the previous value; the December ISM Manufacturing PMI slightly increased; and the December CPI rose slightly, generally in line with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index rose sharply yesterday but then fell back, closing with an upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating potential selling pressure above. It is currently at a minor support level and may experience fluctuations; if it breaks this structure, further market pullback may occur. Overall, the larger trend shows a bullish bias with short-term adjustments. Key resistance areas are around 110-111, while support areas are around 107.5-108.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support level; if the structure breaks, further market pullback may occur.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is worsening, and the situation in Eastern Europe and the Korean Peninsula is unstable. The ECB’s December rate decision involved a third consecutive 25 basis point cut, with progress against inflation proceeding smoothly, although economic recovery is slower than expected. The December Federal Reserve rate decision, which cut rates by 25 basis points, met expectations, with a robust labor market and strong overall economic performance, leading to expectations of a slowdown in rate cuts. The U.S. December non-farm data performed well, with a significant increase in employment and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate; the U.S. December CPI rose moderately.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices surged significantly in the night session, showing strong performance in the short cycle, having broken through resistance structures without signs of weakening. There may still be upward space in the short term, primarily focusing on buying on dips and reducing positions to take profits at highs. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure remains intact, currently in a high-level fluctuation, with attention on whether prices can reach new highs. Key resistance levels are around 2800-2850, while support levels are around 2700-2720.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a bullish bias, primarily focusing on short positions, reducing positions to take profits at highs.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the January EIA monthly report, the crude oil price for 2025 was slightly raised; the OPEC monthly report maintained the growth forecast for global crude oil demand in 2025 and slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025-2026; the IEA monthly report slightly lowered the growth forecast for global oil demand in 2025. At the beginning of December, the OPEC+ meeting extended voluntary production cuts until March next year, and the production increase plan was postponed until April next year, with all production cuts and compensatory cuts extended until the end of 2026. Pay attention to the EIA crude oil inventory report early Friday morning.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil continued its correction yesterday, closing with a large bearish candle on the daily chart, with selling pressure forming above. The short-term cycle shows signs of weakening, and there is still space to the support level below. In the short term, one can attempt short positions and take profits in a timely manner. Overall, crude oil prices are fluctuating with a strong bias, showing signs of stabilization at a higher level, and are entering a correction in the short term. The important resistance area is around 79-80, while the support area is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: In the short term, corrections can be attempted for short positions, with timely profit-taking.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s December interest rate decision saw a third consecutive 25 basis point cut, removing the language of maintaining “restrictive” rates. Progress in combating inflation is smooth, but economic recovery is slower than expected, with plans to stop the bond purchase program by the end of 2024. The December Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with a 25 basis point cut, met expectations, the labor market remains robust, and overall economic performance is strong, with expectations for a slowdown in rate cuts. The US December non-farm payroll data was strong, with a significant increase in employment and a slight drop in the unemployment rate, while the December CPI rose moderately. Pay attention to the manufacturing PMI values of the Eurozone and major economies.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price rose slightly after a pullback yesterday, continuing the rebound in the short cycle. It is currently at the recent pressure structure, with intense competition between bulls and bears. In the short term, it may be volatile, and attention should be paid to whether the price can break through this structure, as the market may strengthen if it does. Overall, the daily chart shows a downward trend, with a weak performance at a higher level, and no signs of stabilization yet. The small-level resistance area is around 1.0400-1.0450, while the support area is around 0.9900-1.0000.

Viewpoint: In the short term, there is a rebound, and attention should be paid to whether the resistance level can be broken; otherwise, the market may fluctuate back and forth.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are predictions only, for reference and learning purposes, do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.