HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0319

Time	Data and Events	Importance
04:30	U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending March 14	★★★
10:30	Japan’s target interest rate for the week ending March 19	★★★
14:30	Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a monetary policy press conference	★★★
18:00	Eurozone February CPI year-on-year final value	★★★
	Eurozone February CPI month-on-month preliminary value	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending March 14	★★★★
	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending March 14	★★★
	U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending March 14	★★★
Next Day 02:00	U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision for the week ending March 19	★★★★★
Next Day 02:30	Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a monetary policy press conference	★★★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Zone	Resistance Zone
U.S. Dollar Index	Oscillating slightly weaker	101-102	106-107
Gold	Oscillating slightly stronger	2900-2930	3030-3050
Crude Oil	Short-term oscillation	65-66	70-71
Euro	Oscillating slightly stronger	1.0750-1.0800	1.0950-1.1000

*Pre-market views, which have time constraints and limitations, are predictions for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and operation risks are borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the end of January, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates unchanged, with a strong labor market, healthy economic expansion, and inflation levels still slightly elevated. Expectations for an easing of monetary policy have cooled, and attention will be on the government’s new policies. February non-farm data indicated an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly below expectations, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate signaling a slight easing in the labor market. February unadjusted CPI year-on-year recorded at 2.8%, slightly lower than previous values and expectations. The January core PCE price index year-on-year slightly retreated, meeting expectations. Focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision early Thursday morning.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. dollar index rose slightly before falling yesterday, facing selling pressure from above. The short-term structure shows signs of oscillation, with a slowing rate of decline; however, no stabilization signal has yet appeared. If there are short positions, consider taking profits at lower levels while watching for any stabilization signals. Overall, the daily oscillation at the high level shows signs of weakening, with a short-term continuation of the bearish adjustment expected. Resistance area is around 106-107, while the support area is around 101-102.

Viewpoint: Oscillating slightly weaker, with signs of consolidation in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision early Thursday morning.

*Pre-market views, which have time constraints and limitations, are predictions for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and operation risks are borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, while the situation in Eastern Europe is easing, leading to uncertainties. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in early March resulted in a continuous fifth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation progressing smoothly and economic growth risks leaning downward. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, with economic activity performing well but inflation levels still high, tempering expectations for rate cuts. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for February showed slight easing, with new jobs added a bit below expectations and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.1%; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year figure for February recorded at 2.8%, slightly below expectations. Attention is drawn to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices have been performing strongly recently, with daily fluctuations trending upward and shorter cycles continuously hitting new highs without signs of weakening. If there are long positions, it is advisable to reduce holdings at high points to secure profits, while the short-term outlook may remain strong, primarily focusing on buying on dips. From a broader perspective, the upward structure remains intact, although daily fluctuations at high levels may warrant caution for potential market corrections. The upper resistance level is likely around 3030-3050, with minor support around 2980.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating strongly, reducing long positions at high points, primarily focusing on buying on dips.

*Pre-market views, which have time constraints and limitations, are predictions for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and operation risks are borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The EIA’s March monthly report maintains its projections for 2025 oil prices and slightly raises the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026; the OPEC monthly report keeps its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next year unchanged; the IEA monthly report slightly lowers its 2025 global oil demand growth expectations. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting confirmed adherence to previous oil production agreements, and the committee agreed to gradually increase oil production starting from April 1, consistent with earlier plans. EIA crude oil inventories slightly increased, which may put pressure on oil prices, and attention should be paid to data changes.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil prices plummeted significantly during last night’s trading, facing selling pressure from above, and short-term fluctuations appear weak. Current prices are at relatively low levels, making it inadvisable to chase short positions; if there are short positions, it is recommended to reduce holdings to secure profits while monitoring for any signs of stabilization, at which point the market may see a rebound. Overall, crude oil prices are fluctuating low without signs of stabilization. The upper pressure zone is around 70-71, while the lower support zone is around 65-66.

Viewpoint: Short-term fluctuations near the support area may lead to rebound opportunities.

*Pre-market views, which have time constraints and limitations, are predictions for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and operation risks are borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision in early March resulted in a continuous fifth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation retreating smoothly and a slight downgrade to GDP growth forecasts for this year and next, along with economic growth risks leaning downward, while tariffs may have negative impacts. At the end of January, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, with overall economic performance being strong and easing expectations somewhat tempered. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for February showed slight easing, with new jobs added slightly below expectations and the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%. The eurozone manufacturing PMI showed little change. Attention is drawn to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Technical Analysis:

The euro appreciated slightly yesterday, with short-term fluctuations testing resistance levels up above. Bullish momentum is slowing, but there are no signs of weakness yet; if there are long positions, it is advisable to reduce holdings at high points and remain cautious of potential short-term corrections. Overall, prices are at relatively low levels with a fluctuating daily structure, which may present signs of a larger stabilization. The upper resistance area is around 1.0950-1.1000, with minor support around 1.0750-1.0800.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating strongly, reducing long positions at high points, and remaining cautious of potential short-term corrections.

*Pre-market views, which have time constraints and limitations, are predictions for reference and learning purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and operation risks are borne by the investor. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.