HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0402

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	U.S. President Trump will impose a 25% tariff on imported cars and a 25% tariff on countries buying energy from Venezuela.	★★★
04:30	U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending March 28.	★★★
20:15	U.S. March ADP employment change.	★★★★
22:00	U.S. factory orders monthly rate for February.	★★★
22:30	U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending March 28.	★★★★
	U.S. EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory for the week ending March 28.	★★★
	U.S. EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending March 28.	★★★
Next day 03:00	U.S. President Trump announces details of reciprocal tariffs and industry-specific tariffs.	★★★★★
Next day 03:45	European Central Bank President Lagarde gives a speech.	★★★
Next day 04:00	U.S. President Trump delivers a speech in the Rose Garden.	★★★
Next day 04:30	Federal Reserve Governor Quarles speaks on inflation expectations.	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Zone	Resistance Zone
U.S. Dollar Index	Volatile with a downward bias	103-103.5	106-107
Gold	Volatile with an upward bias	3100-3110	3180-3200
Crude Oil	Volatile with an upward bias	68-69	73-74
Euro	Volatile with an upward bias	1.0730-1.0750	1.0950-1.1000

*The pre-market view is time-sensitive and limited in scope, is a forecast only for reference and study purposes, and does not constitute investment advice. The risks of investment are borne by the individual; exercise caution when trading.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the March meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, the labor market remained robust, inflation expectations for this year and next year were raised, and GDP growth expectations for the next three years were lowered. Starting in April, the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow down, and there is uncertainty in tariff policies. In February, non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 151,000 jobs, slightly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose slightly, indicating a slight easing in the labor market. The annual CPI for February, not seasonally adjusted, recorded 2.8%, slightly below the previous value and expectations; the core PCE price index for February showed a slight rebound. Pay attention to Friday’s non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. dollar index saw slight fluctuations yesterday, with little volatility and signs of small cycle consolidation. Prices were oscillating within a narrow range, with no stabilization signals yet. Moving forward, attention will be on the breakout direction. Overall, prices are retreating from high levels, with no major stabilization signs yet, likely resulting in short-term volatility. The upper resistance zone is around 106-107, while the lower support zone is around 103-103.5.

Viewpoint: Downward volatility is expected, which may lead to a second test of the support zone, at which point stabilization signals should be monitored.

*The pre-market view is time-sensitive and limited in scope, is a forecast only for reference and study purposes, and does not constitute investment advice. The risks of investment are borne by the individual; exercise caution when trading.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, while the situation in Eastern Europe remains uncertain in the short term. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the beginning of March saw a consecutive fifth cut of 25 basis points, with inflation progressing smoothly and economic growth risks leaning downward. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for March maintained status quo, with a stable labor market, a downward adjustment in GDP growth expectations, and plans to slow down balance sheet reduction. The U.S. February non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year recorded 2.8%, slightly below expectations; the core PCE price index in February saw a slight rebound; and U.S. tariff policies may stimulate gold’s safe-haven properties. Pay attention to this week’s non-farm payroll data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices rose and then fell yesterday, testing the support area without breaking through it, still showing strong sentiment in the short term, but there are signs of resistance in the small cycles which call for caution regarding potential corrections. Long positions should be reduced to secure profits at highs, while monitoring the support structure; if broken, further corrections may occur. From a larger cycle perspective, the upward structure remains intact, and the daily chart shows fluctuating upward movement with prices repeatedly reaching new highs. Resistance may be around 3180-3200, while support could be near 3100-3110.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a strong bias; reduce long positions to secure profits while paying attention to the effectiveness of the support structure.

*The pre-market view is time-sensitive and limited in scope, is a forecast only for reference and study purposes, and does not constitute investment advice. The risks of investment are borne by the individual; exercise caution when trading.

Fundamental Analysis:

The March EIA monthly report maintains the 2025 oil price forecast and slightly raises the global crude oil demand growth expectation for 2026; the OPEC monthly report keeps the global oil demand growth expectations for this and next year unchanged; the IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global oil demand growth expectations for 2025. At the beginning of February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreement, and the committee agreed to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, consistent with prior plans. EIA crude oil inventories have significantly decreased, which may provide short-term support for oil prices; monitor changes in supply and demand structures.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil in the overnight market fell slightly, with the daily line showing an upper shadow, indicating a small cycle of fluctuations and approaching resistance areas with potential selling pressure. Caution is advised for short-term corrections; a short position can be attempted to secure profits promptly, while watching the effectiveness of the support structure below. Overall, crude oil prices are rebounding from a low level, with the daily line showing fluctuating upward movement; watch for stabilization signs at a higher level. The upper pressure area is around 73-74, while the lower support area is 68-69.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a strong bias; be cautious of short-term correction risks.

*The pre-market view is time-sensitive and limited in scope, is a forecast only for reference and study purposes, and does not constitute investment advice. The risks of investment are borne by the individual; exercise caution when trading.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision at the beginning of March consisted of a consecutive fifth cut of 25 basis points, with inflation decline progressing well and a slight downward adjustment in GDP growth expectations for this and next year, while economic growth risks lean downward and tariffs may bring negative effects. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for March remains unchanged, with an upward adjustment in inflation expectations and a downward adjustment in GDP growth expectations, leading to a slowdown in balance sheet reduction. The U.S. February non-farm payroll data saw new job numbers slightly below expectations and the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.1%. In the eurozone and economic entities like France and Germany, the manufacturing PMI values were slightly better than previous values and expectations. Pay attention to this week’s non-farm payroll data.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price fell slightly yesterday, with a small cycle showing fluctuations. Prices did not break through the fluctuation range significantly; monitor whether there are stabilization signals at the current position, as a clear breakdown would indicate a weakening of the market. Overall, after a significant rise in the early stage, there are signs of stopping the decline after a short-term correction, which may restore the upward trend. The upper pressure area is around 1.0950-1.1000, while the lower small-level support area is 1.0700-1.0750.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a strong bias; pay attention to the effectiveness of support at the current position; if broken, the market may weaken.

*The pre-market view is time-sensitive and limited in scope, is a forecast only for reference and study purposes, and does not constitute investment advice. The risks of investment are borne by the individual; exercise caution when trading.