HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0403

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:30	Switzerland March CPI Monthly Rate	★★★
15:50	France March Services PMI Final Value	★★★
15:55	Germany March Services PMI Final Value	★★★
16:00	Eurozone March Services PMI Final Value	★★★
16:30	UK March Services PMI Final Value	★★★
17:00	Eurozone February PPI Monthly Rate	★★★
19:30	US March Challenger Job Cuts	★★★
	European Central Bank Releases March Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes	★★★
20:30	US Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ending March 29	★★★★
	US February Trade Balance	★★★
21:45	US March S&P Global Services PMI Final Value	★★★
22:00	US March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	★★★
22:30	US EIA Natural Gas Inventory for the Week Ending March 28	★★★
Next Day 00:30	Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson Speaks on “US Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communication”	★★★
Next Day 02:30	Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook Speaks on Economic Outlook	★★★

Variety	Perspective	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Volatile and Slightly Weak	100-101	104-104.5
Gold	Volatile and Slightly Strong	3100-3120	3180-3200
Crude Oil	Volatile and Slightly Strong	68-69	73-74
Euro	Volatile and Slightly Strong	1.0750-1.0800	1.0950-1.1000

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, represent predictions, are for reference only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In the March Federal Reserve meeting, the interest rate was kept unchanged, the labor market remained stable, inflation expectations for this year and next were raised, while the GDP growth forecast for the next three years was lowered. As of April, the pace of balance sheet reduction will slow; there is uncertainty regarding tariff policies. February non-farm payroll data showed an addition of 151,000 jobs, slightly below expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a slight easing in the labor market. The February unadjusted CPI annual rate was slightly below the previous value and expectations; the core PCE price index rebounded slightly. Tariff policies increase market risks and uncertainty. Focus on Friday’s non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The US dollar index fell sharply in the overnight session, showing a downward trend in the short cycle and creating lower points. The market continues to show weakness with no signs of a bottom, possibly leaving further downside potential. In the short term, it is likely to maintain a slightly weak outlook. Overall, prices retraced from high levels, the daily line showed a downward trend without signs of stabilization. Resistance is around 104-104.5, while support is around 100-101.

Perspective: Slightly weak with volatility, short cycle creating lower points, possibly still having downside potential.

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, represent predictions, are for reference only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to worsen, and uncertainty remains in Eastern Europe in the short term. The European Central Bank’s rate decision in early March involved a 25 basis point rate cut for the fifth consecutive time, with inflation progressing smoothly, though economic growth risks are leaning towards the downside. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision in March remained unchanged, with a steady labor market, a downward revision of GDP growth expectations, and plans to slow the tapering pace. The U.S. February unadjusted CPI year-on-year recorded 2.8%, slightly below expectations; the core PCE price index rebounded slightly; U.S. tariff policies may stimulate gold’s safe-haven attributes. Attention is on this week’s non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices surged significantly during the day, with the short cycle reaching new highs without showing signs of weakening. In the short term, it may maintain a strong trend, but it is not advisable to chase high prices; existing long positions should be reduced at highs for profits, with a focus on buying on dips. From a longer-term perspective, the upward structure remains intact, with daily fluctuations trending upwards and prices frequently hitting new highs. The upper resistance level may be around 3180-3200, while the lower support level is expected around 3100-3120.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating strongly, focus on buying on dips and reducing positions at highs.

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, represent predictions, are for reference only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The March EIA monthly report maintains the 2025 crude oil price forecasts and slightly raises the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2026. The OPEC monthly report keeps the global oil demand growth forecasts for the next two years unchanged. The IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. In early February, the OPEC+ meeting adhered to the previous oil production agreement, with the committee agreeing to gradually increase oil production starting April 1, consistent with previous plans. EIA crude oil inventories increased significantly, which may pressure oil prices in the short term, necessitating attention to changes in supply-demand dynamics.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil prices experienced a rebound and then a pullback yesterday, entering a short-term adjustment phase, currently located in the recent support area. The decline rate has slowed down, and if it stabilizes, the market may continue to rise and test resistance levels. At that time, attention will be on whether the resistance structure can break upwards; otherwise, the trend may shift to fluctuations. Overall, crude oil prices are rebounding from low levels, with daily fluctuations trending upwards, and attention is on signs of stabilization at a larger level. The upper resistance area is around 73-74, while the lower support area is around 68-69.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating strongly, but be wary of short-term adjustment risks.

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, represent predictions, are for reference only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In early March, the European Central Bank’s rate decision involved a 25 basis point rate cut for the fifth consecutive time, with a smooth decline in inflation progress, and a slight downward revision of GDP growth expectations for the next two years, indicating that economic growth risks are leaning towards the downside. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision in March remained unchanged, with an upward revision of inflation expectations and a downward revision of GDP growth expectations, along with plans to slow the tapering pace. In February, U.S. non-farm data showed that the number of new jobs created was slightly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1%. In the Eurozone and economies like France and Germany, the manufacturing PMI values were slightly better than previous values and expectations. Attention is on this week’s non-farm data.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price experienced a slight increase yesterday, with a short cycle showing intense fluctuations. In the short term, the performance appears strong, and there may still be upward space, with a focus on buying on dips and reducing positions at highs. Overall, the earlier market saw significant increases, and after a short-term pullback, signs of stabilization may indicate a restoration of upward trends. The upper resistance area is around 1.0950-1.1000, while the lower support area is expected around 1.0750-1.0800.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating strongly, the support area has not been breached, with a focus on buying on dips and reducing positions at highs.

*Pre-market perspectives are time-sensitive and limited, represent predictions, are for reference only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.