HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0516

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	The Hang Seng Index Company announces the results of the Hang Seng Index series review for the first quarter of 2025.	★★★
13:30	France’s ILO unemployment rate for the first quarter	★★★
17:00	Eurozone adjusted trade balance for March	★★★
20:30	U.S. new housing starts annualized for April	★★★
	U.S. building permits total for April	★★★
	U.S. import price index month-on-month for April	★★★
22:00	U.S. one-year inflation expectations preliminary value for May	★★★
	U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value for May	★★★

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
U.S. Dollar Index	Fluctuating with a slight upward bias	99-100	103-104
Gold	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	3000-3020	3230-3250
Crude oil	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	57-58	64-65
Euro	Fluctuating with a slight downward bias	1.0950-1.1000	1.1250-1.1300

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

At the beginning of May, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates, the labor market remained resilient, and the unemployment rate was stable; the balance sheet reduction plan continues, short-term inflation has risen slightly, long-term inflation is in line with expectations, and the economy is in a stable state with increasing downside risks. The impact of tariffs may exceed expectations, leading to uncertainty. In April, non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, slightly exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged, indicating a robust labor market. The year-on-year CPI for April decreased slightly, and expectations for interest rate cuts have risen; retail data for April performed poorly but was slightly better than expected.

Technical Analysis:

The U.S. Dollar Index has shown slight fluctuations during the day, with multiple retests in the short cycle. The short-term bullish trend remains dominant, maintaining a strong upward trajectory. Attention should be paid to signs of stabilization after a pullback, with a focus on buying on dips. Overall, prices are at relatively low levels, with daily fluctuations indicating potential for a rebound. The upper resistance area is around 103-104, while the lower support area is around 99-100.

Viewpoint: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias, signs of stabilization after a pullback, focusing on buying on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are escalating, and uncertainties exist in Eastern Europe. The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision marked the sixth consecutive 25 basis point cut, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience strengthening. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision maintained rates, with a resilient labor market and short-term inflation rising, continuing the balance sheet reduction plan, while economic downside risks are increasing. The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April showed job growth exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged; the year-on-year CPI for April showed a moderate decline. The U.S. tariff policy is becoming more lenient, which may temper gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices rebounded strongly yesterday, currently reaching the resistance area, which may lead to selling pressure. The short cycle shows signs of returning to weakness, and the short-term outlook may maintain a downward bias, with opportunities to sell high and reduce holdings on dips for profit. From a long-term perspective, the upward structure remains intact, but the previous high resistance level has not been significantly broken, with daily fluctuations at high levels. The upper resistance level is around 3230-3250, while the lower support level is around 3000-3020.

Viewpoint: The market is weak with fluctuations; pay attention to rebound opportunities for short positions and reduce holdings to take profits on dips.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The May EIA monthly report basically maintains the global crude oil demand expectations for this year and next, while slightly lowering the U.S. crude oil production for this year and next; the OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth expectations for this year and next, but lowers the economic growth expectations for this year. At the beginning of May, the OPEC+ member countries’ meeting will increase production in June, accelerating the pace of production increases for the second consecutive month. There is uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies, which may affect demand. EIA crude oil inventories have increased significantly, leading to a looser supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

U.S. crude oil fell back yesterday with weak performance in the short cycle; there may be selling pressure above, and it may continue to test the support area in the short term, with a high possibility of back-and-forth fluctuations. Short positions can be attempted for timely profits. Overall, crude oil has shown weak performance recently, with repeated fluctuations at low levels, and no significant signs of stabilization have appeared. The pressure area above is around 64-65, while the support area below is around 57-58.

Viewpoint: The market is weak with fluctuations; prices may test the support structure below, and short positions can be attempted.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s April interest rate decision saw a continuous sixth rate cut of 25 basis points, with inflation declining smoothly and economic resilience somewhat enhanced. The bank relies on data, evaluates successively, and dynamically adjusts its monetary policy stance, paying attention to trade situations. The Federal Reserve’s May interest rate decision remains unchanged, with a resilient labor market, a short-term rise in inflation, and a continued balance sheet reduction plan, while the risk of economic downturn increases. The U.S. non-farm payrolls in April slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged; the April CPI year-on-year showed a moderate decline. The manufacturing PMI values in major Eurozone countries showed little change in April.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price fluctuated slightly yesterday with little volatility, currently still below the pressure structure, which may present upward resistance. Pay attention to K-line signals and attempt short positions on highs, reducing holdings to take profits on dips. Overall, the long-term trend shows high-level fluctuations and a potential short-term correction, with no signs of a bottoming out yet. The pressure area above is around 1.1250-1.1300, while the support area below is around 1.0950-1.1000.

Viewpoint: The market is weak with fluctuations; there may be selling pressure at the resistance level, so pay attention to short position opportunities.

*Pre-market views are time-sensitive and limited, are based on predictions, and are for reference and learning only. They do not constitute investment advice, and operational risks are borne by the individual. Investment carries risks; trading requires caution.