HTFX Commentary 0905

 

 

HTFX Investment Research Team

 

Time	Data and Events	Importance
To be determined	Saudi Aramco announces official crude oil prices around the 5th of each month	★★★
02:00	The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions	★★★
04:30	API crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ending August 30th	★★★
13:45	Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Switzerland for August	★★★
17:00	Eurozone retail sales month-on-month for July	★★★
20:15	ADP employment report for August in the United States	★★★★
20:30	Initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 31st	★★★★
21:45	Final Markit Services PMI for global services in August in the United States	★★★
22:00	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for August in the United States	★★★
22:30	EIA natural gas inventories in the United States for the week ending August 30th	★★★
23:00	EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ending August 30th	★★★★
	EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in Oklahoma for the week ending August 30th	★★★
	EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories in the United States for the week ending August 30th	★★★

 

Variety	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
US dollar index	Short-term adjustment	100-101	102.5-103
Gold	High-level oscillation	2400-2420	2520-2530
Crude oil	Weak oscillation	68-70	74-75
Euro	Short-term oscillation	1.0900-1.0950	1.1200-1.1250

*Pre-market viewpoint, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment carries risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates unchanged. Inflation has made further progress but remains high. There are signs of economic weakness but not severe. Employment growth has slowed down. This meeting discussed the possibility of future rate cuts. The annualized GDP growth rate in the United States in the second quarter was better than expected and the previous value. Retail sales in July increased slightly, and CPI in July fell slightly. The core PCE price index in July was the same as the previous value, slightly lower than the expected value. The August ISM manufacturing PMI data was slightly higher than the previous value but slightly lower than expected. Pay attention to non-farm payroll data on Friday.

Technical analysis:

The US dollar index fell slightly yesterday, and the market may undergo a short-term adjustment. It may retest the support area for the second time. Pay attention to stabilization signals and try short opportunities on the pullback. Overall, the market is in a wide range of oscillation within a range, currently approaching a major support structure. Pay attention to whether there will be signs of consolidation and stabilization. The upper small-level resistance area is around 102.5-103, and the lower support area is around 100-101.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustment, may retest the support area for the second time, pay attention to stabilization signals.

*Pre-market viewpoint, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment carries risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

The Middle East geopolitical conflict spills over, and the situation in Eastern Europe is turbulent, with uncertainty. In July, the ECB maintained the three major interest rates unchanged, with stable inflation and economic growth facing downward pressure. At the end of July, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and discussed the possibility of future rate cuts, with an overall dovish stance. The US CPI data for July moderately declined, lower than the expected value and previous value. The manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone and economies such as Germany and France slightly fell in August. Pay attention to the US non-farm payroll data this Friday.

Technical analysis:

The gold price maintains a volatile downward trend, with a significant rebound in the overnight session, but there may be selling pressure above, and it is possible to try a high short opportunity. From a long-term perspective, the price is in a high-level oscillation, with a significant increase in the previous period, and the overall valuation is relatively high, with no major signals of a weakening trend yet. The upper resistance level is around 2520-2530, and the lower minor support level is around 2460-2480, with an important support level around 2400-2420.

Viewpoint: Be cautious of the risk of market correction in the high-level oscillation and consider trying short opportunities.

*Pre-market viewpoint, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment carries risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

In the August EIA monthly report, the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was slightly lowered, while the crude oil demand forecast for 2024 was maintained, and the crude oil price forecast for 2024-2025 was slightly lowered. In the OPEC monthly report, the global crude oil demand forecast for 2024-2025 was slightly lowered, while the global economic growth forecast for 2024-2025 was maintained. In the IEA monthly report, the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2024 was maintained. In early August, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting focused on production compensation issues and did not discuss production policies for the fourth quarter. Pay attention to the EIA inventory data and Saudi Aramco crude oil prices this Thursday.

Technical analysis:

WTI crude oil rose yesterday and then fell back, with a small-scale downward oscillation in the short term. There is no sign of a bottoming out yet, and the price is close to the support area. It is not advisable to chase short positions, and if there are short positions, it is appropriate to reduce them for profit. Overall, the crude oil price is oscillating within a wide range, paying attention to the support and resistance areas and the direction of future breakthroughs. The upper resistance area is around 74-75, and the important support area is around 68-70.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, it is not advisable to chase short positions near the support area, reduce short positions on dips to gain profits.

*Pre-market viewpoint, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment carries risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

ECB’s interest rate decision in July, maintaining the three major rates unchanged, stable inflation, slowing economic growth and facing downside risks, resilient labor market, open attitude towards interest rate cuts in September. The end of July FOMC meeting, maintaining interest rates unchanged, progress in inflation, slowing job growth, discussion on future interest rate cuts. Manufacturing PMI in the eurozone and major economies such as Germany and France slightly declined, below previous and expected values. Pay attention to the eurozone’s Q2 GDP annual rate and US non-farm employment data.

Technical analysis:

Euro prices rebounded in the night session, with a small period of oscillation. In the short term, there may be an upward test of resistance, then pay attention to weak signals on smaller timeframes and attempt short opportunities. Overall, the daily timeframe shows a strong oscillation, with a possible short-term adjustment, waiting for signals of stabilization after a pullback. The important resistance area above is near 1.1200-1.1250, and the support area below is near 1.0900-1.0950.

Viewpoint: Short-term oscillation, may have an upward test of resistance, then pay attention to weak signals and attempt short opportunities.

*Pre-market viewpoint, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment carries risks, trading should be cautious.

 

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