HTFX Commentary 0904

 

 

HTFX Investment Research Team

 

Time	Data and Events	Importance
09:30	Australia’s Q2 GDP YoY	★★★
15:50	France’s August final services PMI	★★★
15:55	Germany’s August final services PMI	★★★
16:00	Eurozone’s August final services PMI	★★★
16:30	UK’s August services PMI	★★★
17:00	Eurozone’s July PPI MoM	★★★
20:30	US July trade balance	★★★
21:45	Bank of Canada interest rate decision until September 4th	★★★★
22:00	US July JOLTs job openings	★★★
	US July factory orders MoM	★★★
22:30	Bank of Canada Governor Macklem holds monetary policy press conference	★★★

 

Instrument	Viewpoint	Support range	Resistance range
US Dollar Index	Volatile rebound	100-101	102.5-103
Gold	High-level volatility	2400-2420	2520-2530
Crude oil	Weak oscillation	68-70	74-75
Euro	Short-term correction	1.0900-1.0950	1.1200-1.1250

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment involves risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates unchanged. Inflation has made further progress but remains high. There are signs of economic weakness but not severe. Employment growth has slowed down. This meeting discussed the possibility of future rate cuts. The annualized GDP growth rate in the United States in the second quarter was better than expected and the previous value. Retail sales in July increased slightly, July CPI data fell slightly, and the core PCE price index for July was the same as the previous value, slightly lower than the expected value. The August ISM manufacturing PMI data was slightly higher than the previous value but slightly lower than expected. Pay attention to non-farm payroll data on Friday.

Technical analysis:

The US dollar index rose slightly in overnight trading and then fell back. There was not much volatility during the day. The short-term upward movement encountered resistance, but there is no sign of weakening yet. It may maintain a oscillating rebound trend in the short term, and there may be opportunities for short-term buying on pullbacks. Overall, the market is in a range-bound oscillation and is currently close to a major support structure. Pay attention to whether there will be signs of consolidation and stabilization. The upper small-level resistance area is around 102.5-103, and the lower support area is around 100-101.

Viewpoint: Oscillating rebound, there may still be room for rebound, try short-term buying on pullbacks.

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment involves risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

The Middle East geopolitical conflict spills over, and the situation in Eastern Europe is turbulent, with uncertainty. In July, the ECB maintained the three major interest rates unchanged, with stable inflation and downward pressure on economic growth. At the end of July, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and discussed the possibility of future rate cuts, with an overall dovish stance. The US CPI data for July moderately declined, below expectations and previous values. The manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone and economies such as Germany and France slightly fell in August. Pay attention to the US non-farm payroll data this Friday.

Technical analysis:

The price of gold fluctuated and fell back yesterday, with a significant rebound near the support area in the short term. There may be selling pressure above, and it is possible to try a high short opportunity. In the long term, the price is oscillating at a high level, with a significant increase in the previous period, and the overall valuation is relatively high. There has not yet been a major signal of a weakening trend. The resistance level above is around 2520-2530, and the small-scale support below is around 2460-2480, with an important support level around 2400-2420.

Viewpoint: Be cautious of the risk of market pullback at high levels and consider trying short positions.

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment involves risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

In the August EIA monthly report, the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was slightly lowered, while the crude oil demand forecast for 2024 was maintained, and the crude oil price forecast for 2024-2025 was slightly lowered. In the OPEC monthly report, the global crude oil demand forecast for 2024-2025 was slightly lowered, while the global economic growth forecast for 2024-2025 was maintained. The IEA monthly report maintained the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2024. In early August, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting focused on production compensation issues and did not discuss fourth-quarter production policies. Pay attention to the EIA inventory data and Saudi Aramco crude oil prices this Thursday.

Technical analysis:

WTI crude oil fell sharply yesterday, with a large bearish candlestick on the daily chart, showing signs of weakening. The current price is near the support area, so it is not advisable to chase short positions. If there are short positions, it is appropriate to reduce them for profit. Overall, the price of crude oil is oscillating within a wide range, and attention should be paid to the support and resistance areas and the direction of future breakthroughs. The resistance area above is around 74-75, and the important support area below is around 68-70.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, it is not advisable to chase short positions near the support area, reduce short positions on dips to take profits.

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment involves risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

ECB’s interest rate decision in July, maintaining the three major interest rates unchanged, stable inflation, slowing economic growth and facing downside risks, labor market remains resilient, open to interest rate cuts in September. The end of July Fed meeting, maintaining interest rates unchanged, progress in inflation, slowing job growth, the possibility of future interest rate cuts was discussed. Manufacturing PMI in the eurozone and major economies such as Germany and France slightly declined, below previous and expected values. Pay attention to the eurozone’s Q2 GDP annual rate and US non-farm employment data.

Technical analysis:

Euro prices continued to decline yesterday, with short-term downward oscillation, a slight rebound in the night session with moderate strength, possible selling pressure above, a higher probability of short-term oscillation and pullback, can try high short opportunities, take profits in a timely manner. Overall, the daily chart shows a slightly strong oscillation, no signs of turning weak, pay attention to opportunities for long positions on pullbacks. Important resistance area above around 1.1200-1.1250, support area below around 1.0900-1.0950.

Viewpoint: Short-term pullback, can try high short opportunities, take profits in a timely manner.

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment involves risks, trading should be cautious.

 

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