HTFX Commentary 0902

 

 

HTFX Investment Research Team

 

Time	Data and Events	Importance
14:30	Swiss July Retail Sales YoY	★★★
15:50	France August Manufacturing PMI Final	★★★
15:55	Germany August Manufacturing PMI Final	★★★
16:00	Eurozone August Manufacturing PMI Final	★★★
16:30	UK August Manufacturing PMI	★★★

 

Variety	Viewpoint	Support Range	Pressure Range
US Dollar Index	Oscillating rebound	100-101	104-104.5
Gold	High-level oscillation	2400-2420	2530-2550
Crude Oil	Range oscillation	70-72	79-80
Euro	Short-term correction	1.0900-1.0950	1.1200-1.1250

*Pre-market viewpoint, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investing is risky, so be cautious in trading.

 

Fundamental analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates unchanged. Inflation has made further progress but remains high. There are signs of economic weakness but not severe. Job growth has slowed down. The possibility of future interest rate cuts was discussed in this meeting. The annualized GDP rate for the second quarter in the United States was better than expected and the previous value. Retail data in July showed a slight increase, higher than expected and previous values. CPI data in July showed a slight decline, indicating moderate inflation decrease. The core PCE price index for July remained the same as the previous value, slightly lower than the expected value. Attention is focused on the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday and non-farm employment data on Friday.

Technical analysis:

The US dollar index continued to rebound on the daily chart, with short-term oscillations trending upwards. There are no signs of weakening yet, and there may still be room for further upward movement. It is worth considering short-term buying opportunities on pullbacks. Overall, the market is in a wide range of volatile fluctuations, currently approaching major support structures. It is important to observe whether there will be signs of consolidation and stabilization. The resistance area above is around 104-104.5, and the support area below is around 100-101.

Viewpoint: The market is experiencing oscillating rebounds, and there may still be room for further rebounds. It is worth considering short-term buying opportunities on pullbacks.

*Pre-market viewpoint, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investing is risky, so be cautious in trading.

 

Fundamental analysis:

The Middle East geopolitical conflict is spilling over, and the situation in Europe is turbulent, creating uncertainty. In July, the European Central Bank maintained the three major interest rates unchanged, with stable inflation and economic growth facing downward pressure. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting maintained interest rates unchanged and discussed the possibility of future interest rate cuts. The overall statement was slightly dovish. CPI data in the United States for July showed a moderate decrease, lower than the expected value and previous value. Manufacturing PMI values in the Eurozone, Germany, and France slightly declined in August. Attention is focused on the US non-farm data this Friday.

Technical analysis:

The gold price maintains a high-level volatile trend, with multiple failed attempts to break through in the short term. Caution should be exercised regarding the risk of market correction. If holding long positions, it is advisable to reduce them at high levels to secure profits. Short selling opportunities can be explored. In the long term, the price is in a high-level volatile state, with a significant increase in price in the previous period and an overall overvaluation. There has not yet been a strong signal indicating a major weakening. The resistance level is around 2530-2550, while the support level in the short term is around 2460-2480, and the important support level is around 2400-2420.

Viewpoint: Caution should be exercised regarding the risk of market correction in the high-level volatile state. Short selling opportunities can be explored.

*Pre-market viewpoint, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investing is risky, so be cautious in trading.

 

Fundamental analysis:

In the August EIA monthly report, the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was slightly lowered, while the oil demand forecast for 2024 was maintained. The oil price forecast for 2024-2025 was slightly lowered. In the OPEC monthly report, the global oil demand forecast for 2024-2025 was slightly lowered, while the global economic growth forecast for 2024-2025 was maintained. The IEA monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for 2024. In early August, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting focused on production compensation issues and did not discuss production policies for the fourth quarter. EIA inventory data showed a slight decrease, and attention is given to changes in supply and demand structure.

Technical analysis:

The price of WTI crude oil fell sharply in the night session last Friday, encountering resistance in the short term. There is selling pressure from above, and the price may be in a range-bound volatility. Based on the resistance and support structure, both selling at high levels and buying at low levels can be profitable. Overall, the price of crude oil is experiencing wide-ranging volatility within a range, and attention is given to support and resistance areas and the direction of future breakthroughs. The resistance area above is around 79-80, and the important support area below is around 70-72.

Viewpoint: Range-bound volatility, selling at high levels and buying at low levels, and attention is given to the direction of future breakthroughs.

*Pre-market viewpoint, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investing is risky, so be cautious in trading.

 

Fundamental analysis:

In the July interest rate decision of the European Central Bank, the three major rates were kept unchanged. Inflation remained stable, economic growth slowed down and faced downward risks, and the labor market remained flexible. The ECB maintained an open attitude towards interest rate cuts in September. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve meeting kept interest rates unchanged. Inflation made progress, while job growth slowed down. The meeting discussed the possibility of future interest rate cuts. The manufacturing PMI values of the eurozone, Germany, France, and other major economies showed a slight decline, lower than previous and expected values. Attention is focused on the eurozone’s Q2 GDP annual rate and US non-farm employment data.

Technical analysis:

The euro price fluctuated and fell back, with consecutive daily bearish candles. There is no sign of a bottom or stabilization yet, and there may be further downward correction in the short term. It is possible to consider shorting opportunities and take profits in a timely manner. Overall, the daily chart shows a strong oscillation and no signs of turning weak. Pay attention to opportunities for long positions on pullbacks. The important resistance area above is around 1.1200-1.1250, and the support area below is around 1.0900-1.0950.

Viewpoint: In the short term, there may be opportunities to short on the pullback, and profits should be taken in a timely manner.

*Pre-market viewpoint, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to anticipation, for reference and learning only, does not constitute investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investing is risky, so be cautious in trading.

 

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