HTFX Commentary 0823

 

HTFX Investment Research Team

 

Time	Data and Events	Importance
07:01	UK August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index	★★★
07:30	Japan July Core CPI Annual Rate	★★★
08:30	Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso attend parliamentary hearings	★★★
09:00	Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso delivers a speech	★★★
20:00	2024 FOMC Voting Member Bostic interviewed by CNBC	★★★
20:30	Canada June Retail Sales MoM	★★★
22:00	Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers a speech on economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Symposium	★★★★
	US July New Home Sales Total Annualized	★★★
23:00	2026 FOMC Voting Member Harker interviewed by Bloomberg TV	★★★

 

Instrument	Viewpoint	Support Range	Resistance Range
US Dollar Index	Slightly weak oscillation	100-101	104-104.5
Gold	Slightly strong oscillation	2400-2420	2530-2550
Crude oil	Slightly weak oscillation	70-72	80-82
Euro	Slightly strong oscillation	1.0900-1.0950	1.1150-1.1200

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment involves risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

At the end of July, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged, inflation made further progress but remained high, there were signs of economic weakness but not severe, and job growth slowed down. This meeting discussed the possibility of future rate cuts. The US GDP annualized rate for the second quarter was better than expected and the previous value, and retail sales in July increased slightly, higher than expected and the previous value. Non-farm employment in July fell significantly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose, which may put pressure on the US dollar index in the short term. CPI data in July fell slightly, lower than expected and the previous value, with moderate inflation decline.

Technical analysis:

The US dollar index rebounded slightly yesterday, but there is still selling pressure above, and the short-term oscillation is weak. The current price is close to the support zone below, and it has not stabilized at a higher level. There may be oscillations in the short term. Overall, the market is in a wide range of oscillations, with selling pressure above and support below. The future focus is on the breakthrough direction. The resistance zone above is around 104-104.5, and the support zone below is around 100-101.

Viewpoint: Weak oscillation, support zone, possible short-term oscillation.

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment involves risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

The spillover of Middle East geopolitical conflicts and the turmoil in Europe create uncertainty. In July, the European Central Bank maintained the three major interest rates unchanged, with stable inflation and economic growth facing downward pressure. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged and discussed the possibility of future rate cuts, with an overall dovish tone. The unexpectedly weak US non-farm data in July increased expectations of rate cuts. The US CPI data in July moderately declined, lower than the expected and previous values. The manufacturing PMI in the eurozone and economies such as Germany and France slightly declined in August.

Technical analysis:

The gold price experienced a pullback during the night session, but recovered after touching the support area below. Caution should be exercised as there may be selling pressure from above. The short-term strategy is to reduce holdings at high levels and monitor whether the price can reach new highs. In the larger time frame, the price is oscillating at high levels after a significant increase. The overall valuation is relatively high, and there have not been any strong signals indicating a major weakening. The resistance level above is around 2530-2550, while the support level below is around 2460-2480 in the smaller time frame and around 2400-2420 in the important support area.

Viewpoint: The market is oscillating with a bias towards strength. The short-term strategy is to reduce holdings at high levels and monitor whether the price can reach new highs.

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment involves risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

In the August EIA monthly report, the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was slightly lowered, while the crude oil demand forecast for 2024 was maintained. The forecast for crude oil prices for 2024-2025 was slightly lowered. In the OPEC monthly report, the global crude oil demand forecast for 2024-2025 was slightly lowered, while the forecast for global economic growth for 2024-2025 was maintained. The IEA monthly report maintained the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2024. In early August, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting focused on production compensation issues and did not discuss production policies for the fourth quarter. EIA inventory data decreased significantly and did not continue the relatively loose state of the previous week.

Technical analysis:

WTI crude oil experienced a slight rebound yesterday, touching the support area below and showing signs of a slowdown in the decline and a rebound. It is currently under short-term pressure and may transition into a period of oscillation. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a strong signal indicating stabilization in the larger time frame. Overall, crude oil prices are oscillating within a wide range, and the focus is on the support and resistance areas and the direction of future breakthroughs. The resistance area above is around 80-82, while the important support area below is around 70-72.

Viewpoint: The market is oscillating with a bias towards weakness, and the price is approaching the support area. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a strong signal indicating stabilization in the larger time frame.

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment involves risks, trading should be cautious.

 

Fundamental analysis:

In July, the ECB maintained the three major interest rates unchanged, with stable inflation, slowing economic growth, and facing downside risks. The labor market remained resilient, and there was an open attitude towards interest rate cuts in September. At the end of July, the Fed meeting kept interest rates unchanged, with progress in inflation and slowing job growth. The possibility of future interest rate cuts was discussed. The US non-farm data in July was lower than expected, and the July CPI data moderately declined. The manufacturing PMI values of the eurozone, Germany, and France, among other major economies, fell slightly, below previous and expected values.

Technical analysis:

The euro price slightly declined yesterday, with possible selling pressure above, but no signs of weakening yet. In the short term, it may continue to test resistance and experience a volatile market. There may be opportunities for short positions, so profits should be taken in a timely manner. Overall, the daily chart shows a bullish trend with no signs of weakening, and attention should be paid to opportunities for long positions on pullbacks. The important resistance area above is around 1.1150-1.1200, and the support area below is around 1.0900-1.0950.

Viewpoint: The market is oscillating with a bias towards strength. Take profits in a timely manner and observe whether the resistance area can be broken.

*Pre-market view, with timeliness and limitations, belongs to prediction, for reference and learning only, not investment advice, trade at your own risk. Investment involves risks, trading should be cautious.

 

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