HTFX Daily Forex Commentary 0121

Time	Data and Events	Importance
15:00	UK November three-month ILO unemployment rate	★★★
	UK December unemployment rate	★★★
	UK December jobless claims	★★★
18:00	Germany January ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	★★★
	Eurozone January ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	★★★
21:30	Canada December CPI month-on-month	★★★
Next day 03:30	NYMEX New York crude oil February futures rollover, final trading on the floor completed	★★★

Variety	Views	Support range	Resistance range
US Dollar Index	Short-term adjustment	107.5-108	110-111
Gold	Volatile but strong	2620-2630	2720-2730
Crude oil	Volatile but strong	68-70	79-80
Euro	Short-term rebound	0.9900-1.0000	1.0400-1.0450

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are speculative and for reference learning only, not constituting investment advice. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

In December, the Federal Reserve meeting cut rates by 25 basis points again. The labor market remains robust, and the overall economic performance is strong, pushing back the inflation target to 2027, with expectations for rate cuts slowing. The dot plot indicates there will be two rate cuts next year. The non-farm payroll data for December showed a significant increase in employment, exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate slightly falling to 4.1%, reflecting a strong labor market. The core PCE inflation index for November remained the same as the previous value; December’s ISM manufacturing PMI slightly increased; and the CPI for December saw a slight rise, aligning closely with expectations.

Technical Analysis:

The US dollar index fell significantly yesterday, entering a short-term adjustment phase without signs of a rebound. It is currently at a minor support level and may fluctuate; a breakdown of this structure would lead to further declines. Overall, there is a large-scale strong fluctuation, with daily fluctuations trending upwards without signs of weakness. The key resistance area is around 110-111, while the support area is around 107.5-108.

Viewpoint: Short-term adjustments; focus on support level effectiveness. A breakdown of the structure would lead to further declines.

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are speculative and for reference learning only, not constituting investment advice. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are worsening, with turmoil in Eastern Europe and the Korean Peninsula. The ECB’s December rate decision involved a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, with progress against inflation proceeding smoothly, albeit slower than expected. The December Federal Reserve rate decision’s 25 basis point cut matched expectations, with a robust labor market and strong overall economic performance leading to expectations of a slowdown in rate cuts. The US’s December non-farm payroll data performed well, with a significant increase in employment numbers and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate; December’s CPI saw moderate increases.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices saw slight fluctuations yesterday, with early morning prices rising, indicating a strong short-term performance. Currently near a pressure structure, there may be signs of breaking upwards, further strengthening the market. Short-term strategy should focus on low-long setups while taking profits on highs. In a longer term view, the ascending structure remains intact, currently in high volatility, with attention on whether prices can reach new highs. Key resistance levels are around 2720-2730, with support around 2620-2630.

Viewpoint: Volatile but strong; focus on short-long strategies, taking profits on highs.

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are speculative and for reference learning only, not constituting investment advice. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The EIA’s monthly report for January slightly revised up the crude oil price forecast for 2025; the OPEC monthly report maintained the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025-2026; the IEA’s monthly report slightly revised down the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. At the beginning of December, the OPEC+ meeting extended the voluntary production cuts until March next year, and plans for increased production have been delayed until April next year, with all members’ production cuts and compensatory cuts extended to the end of 2026. EIA crude oil inventories have been consistently decreasing, with recent data being quite volatile, which may impact the supply-demand structure.

Technical Analysis:

US crude oil futures slightly retreated during the night session, with a short-term oscillating trend. There may be selling pressure above, and caution is needed regarding short-term pullback risks. Currently, it is at a small-level support point, and signals of stabilization should be monitored, as there may be further tests of upper pressure if stabilized. If the support structure is broken, the market may weaken further. Overall, crude oil prices demonstrated an upward breakout after fluctuating at low levels, showing signs of stabilization at a large scale. The important pressure area above is around 79-80, and the support area below is around 69-70.

Viewpoint: Oscillating with a slight strength, the short-term cycle is in adjustment, and attention should be paid to signs of stabilization.

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are speculative and for reference learning only, not constituting investment advice. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.

Fundamental Analysis:

The European Central Bank’s December rate decision resulted in the third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut and removed the wording about maintaining a “restrictive” interest rate. Progress in combatting inflation is going smoothly, but economic recovery is slower than expected, with plans to stop the debt purchase program by the end of 2024. The December Federal Reserve rate decision for a 25 basis point rate cut was in line with expectations, with a robust labor market and strong overall economic performance, leading to expectations of a slowdown in future rate cuts. December’s non-farm payroll data in the US showed a significant increase in employment numbers and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate, while the December CPI rose moderately. Manufacturing PMI values for the Eurozone and major economies slightly declined.

Technical Analysis:

The euro price saw substantial gains during the night session, with a rebound in the short-term cycle. The price has encountered resistance at the upper pressure point, while there is also a support structure below. In the short term, there may be a battle between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to whether this pressure structure can be broken; otherwise, the market may oscillate back and forth. Overall, the daily graph shows downward oscillation, with a large-scale performance still weak and no signs of stabilization yet. The upper minor pressure area is around 1.0400-1.0450, and the lower support area is around 0.9900-1.0000.

Viewpoint: Short-term rebound, focusing on whether the pressure level can be broken; otherwise, the market may oscillate back and forth.

*Pre-market views, time-sensitive and limited in scope, are speculative and for reference learning only, not constituting investment advice. Investment has risks; trading requires caution.